| 广西北部湾经济区“十二五”期末森林覆盖率的预测分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 蓝金宣,覃婷.广西北部湾经济区“十二五”期末森林覆盖率的预测分析[J].广西林业科学,2013(4):411-414. |
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| 作者姓名： | 蓝金宣 覃婷 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]广西林业科学研究院,南宁530002 [2]广西林业勘测设计院,南宁530011 |
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| 摘 要： | 以广西北部湾经济区2005～2012年森林覆盖率数据为基础,运用灰色系统预测模型对北部湾经济区“十二五”期末森林覆盖率进行预测,并对模型的精度进行分析和检验.建立GM（1,1）模型经精度检验（C=S1/S2=0.1445; P=P{｜ εi（）0-ε-（0）｜ 0.6745S2}=1 ＞0.95））判为好,预测“十二五”期末森林覆盖率,可为广西北部湾经济区制定相关政策规划提供参考依据.
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统 GM（1 1）模型 森林覆盖率 |
Prediction and Analysis on the Forest Coverage of the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone at the End of ＂Twelfth Five Year Plan＂ |
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| LAN Jin-xuan,QIN Ting.Prediction and Analysis on the Forest Coverage of the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone at the End of ＂Twelfth Five Year Plan＂[J].Guangxi Forestry Science,2013(4):411-414. |
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| Authors: | LAN Jin-xuan QIN Ting |
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| Institution: | 1. Guangxi Forestry Research Institute, Nanning 530002, China; 2. Guangxi Forest Invntory＆Planning Institute, Nanning 530011, China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the forest coverage data of Beibu Gulf Economic Zone from 2005 to 2012, the forest coverage of the mentioned area at the end of ＂Twelfth Five Year Plan＂ was predicted by Grey System Forecast Model. Analysis and testing of this model＇ s precision were realized by establishing GM （ 1, 1 ） precision testing model （C=SL/S2=0.1445; P=P t I e（0）_ -（0） I 0.6745S2} =1 〉0.95）, and the result turned out to be satisfactory. This prediction would give reference to relevant policy formulation in Beibu Gulf Economic Zone. |
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| Keywords: | Grey System GM （1 1 ）model forest coverage |
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