| 基于ARIMA模型对全国集贸市场鸡蛋价格的分析和预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 张一凡,范梅华.基于ARIMA模型对全国集贸市场鸡蛋价格的分析和预测[J].中国家禽,2020(1):82-86. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张一凡 范梅华 |
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| 作者单位： | 新加坡国立大学理学院;江苏省家禽科学研究所 |
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| 基金项目： | 江苏省创新能力建设计划(BM2018026-05);扬州市科技计划项目(YZ2018160)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 鸡蛋是我国居民日常生活中最常见的蛋白质食品,在众多农产品中鸡蛋价格波动对物价水平以及居民消费价格指数的影响尤为显著,提前分析预测鸡蛋价格对调控鸡蛋市场供需关系、促进禽蛋产业健康发展有重要意义。研究采用ARIMA时间序列分析模型,以全国500个县集贸市场2013年1月1日~2019年7月31日每周的鸡蛋平均价格为分析与建模基础,并对后期8周的鸡蛋价格进行了预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 鸡蛋 价格 预测 ARIMA |
Analysis and Forecast of Egg Price in the National Market Based on ARIMA Model |
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| ZHANG Yifan,FAN Meihua.Analysis and Forecast of Egg Price in the National Market Based on ARIMA Model[J].China Poultry,2020(1):82-86. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Yifan FAN Meihua |
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| Institution: | (Faculty of Science,National University of Singapore,Singapore 117543;Jiangsu Institute of Poultry Sciences,Yangzhou,Jiangsu 225125) |
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| Abstract: | Egg is the most common protein food in our daily life in China. In many agricultural products, the fluctuation of egg price has a significant impact on the price level and consumer price index. It is of vital importance to analyze and predict the egg price in advance for regulating the supply-demand relationship of the egg market and promoting the healthy development of egg industry. In this paper, ARIMA time series analysis model was used to analyze and model the average price of eggs every week from 1 January 2013 to 31 July 2019 in the 500 county markets in China, and to predict the price of eggs in the later 8 weeks. |
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| Keywords: | egg price forecast ARIMA |
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