| 浙江省耕地多功能时空格局变化、影响因素及空间溢出效应 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈莎,杨润佳,李冠.浙江省耕地多功能时空格局变化、影响因素及空间溢出效应[J].农业工程学报,2022,38(16):21-32. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈莎 杨润佳 李冠 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 浙江财经大学公共管理学院,杭州 310018;2. 浙江大学公共管理学院,杭州310058;3. 宁波大学法学院,宁波 315211 |
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| 基金项目： | 浙江省自然科学基金探索项目（LQ21G030003）;浙江省省属高校基本科研业务费专项（SJWY2021002）;宁波市社会科学研究基地项目（JD5-ZD41） |
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| 摘 要： | 探讨耕地多功能的时空变化规律、影响因素及其空间上的溢出效应或交互作用,对深化耕地多功能认知、提升耕地资源可持续利用能力具有重要意义。该研究选取浙江省为研究区域,基于耕地利用、气象、土壤、社会经济等数据,综合运用GIS制图、空间自相关分析和基于可拓展随机性环境影响评估（Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence and Technology,STIRPAT）的面板空间计量模型探讨了浙江省2000-2015年耕地多功能的时空变化特征、影响因素及空间溢出效应。结果表明：1）2000-2015年浙江省各区县耕地功能综合水平呈现"先减少,后增长"的变化趋势,耕地物质产出功能、净固碳功能和景观美学功能均呈上升趋势,水源涵养功能保持平稳,劳动力承载功能逐步降低;2）耕地多功能水平的提升对邻近地区有较强的辐射影响作用,本县域耕地多功能水平每增长1%将导致邻近县域耕地多功能水平增长0.224%。农业劳动力、农村居民可支配收入和农业机械水平对耕地多功能具有显著的正向效应,第二产业占比和城镇化水平对耕地多功能具有显著的负向效应;3）第二产业占比、农业现代化水平、农业劳动力投入对耕地多功能有直接效应,城乡居民收入、城镇化水平对耕地多功能水平有溢出效应。研究建议重视区县内部以及区县与邻近地区之间的空间交互作用,加强区域间土地整治、生态保护和农业技术升级等多方面合作。应充分考虑各县域资源禀赋的特殊性以及社会经济发展阶段的异质性,制定针对性的耕地保护和农业扶持适应策略。
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| 关 键 词： | 土地利用 耕地多功能 面板空间计量 溢出效应 空间杜宾模型 浙江省 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022/7/1 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2022/8/5 0:00:00 |
Spatiotemporal variation, influencing factors and spatial spillover of cultivated land multifunction in Zhejiang Province |
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| Chen Sh,Yang Runji,Li Guan.Spatiotemporal variation, influencing factors and spatial spillover of cultivated land multifunction in Zhejiang Province[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2022,38(16):21-32. |
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| Authors: | Chen Sh Yang Runji Li Guan |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China;2. School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China; 3. Law School, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China |
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| Abstract: | Abstract: The utilization and function pattern of cultivated land have been profoundly transformed by the socio-economic and historical changes in the urban-rural relationship. The spatiotemporal variation, influencing factors, and spatial spillover of cultivated land multifunction can also greatly contribute to the sustainable utilization of cultivated land resources. However, it is still lacking on the influence of socioeconomic factors on the cultivated land multifunction, particularly with the spatial spillover. Therefore, this study aims to conduct a theoretical analysis of the influencing mechanism of cultivated land multifunction, including the direct and indirect (spillover) effect. Specifically, the direct effects of cultivated land use originated from the labor transfer, the economic level, and agricultural technology. The spillover effects of the cultivated land multifunction were brought about by the spatial proximity, regional competition, and spatial flow of developing elements. Taking Zhejiang Province of China as an example, five functions of cultivated land were selected to calculate the comprehensive index of cultivated land multifunction (MFCI) using the data on cultivated land use, meteorology, soil and socio-economics. Then, the spatiotemporal evolution of MFCI was revealed to determine the driving mechanism of cultivated land multifunction using GIS mapping, spatial autocorrelation, and spatial panel econometric models under the STIRPAT analysis. The results show that: 1) Most counties in Zhejiang province experienced a trend of rapid decrease, slow decrease, and then a slight increase of cultivated land during 2000-2015. There was an increase in the agricultural production function (APF), net carbon sequestration function (NCF), and landscape aesthetic function of cultivated land (ASF). The water retention function (WRF) remained stable, while the labor carrying function (LCF) decreased gradually in the period. 2) There were strong spillover effects of cultivated land multifunction on the neighboring area. Every 1% increase of MFCI in the local county led to a 0.224% increase in MFCI in the neighboring counties. There were significant positive effects of agricultural labor input, disposable income of rural households, and agricultural machinery level on the MFCI. By contrast, the proportion of secondary industry and urbanization level posed significant negative effects on the MFCI. 3) The industrial structure, agricultural machinery level, and agricultural labor input presented the direct effects on the multifunctional level of cultivated land, whereas, the spillover effects were from the income of urban and rural residents, as well as the urbanization level. Besides, the Kuznets effect was identified in the change of MFCI. A "U" shaped curve with the MFCI was found in the per capita GDP and urban disposable income, whereas, an "inverted-U" shaped curve with MFCI was formed in the disposable income of rural households and agricultural machinery level. Some suggestions were made to strengthen the cooperation in the land consolidation, ecological protection, and agricultural technology, particularly on the spatial interaction within and between counties. Besides, it is necessary to fully understand the specification of resource endowment and the heterogeneity of socio-economic development for the adaptive strategies in cultivated land protection and agricultural support. |
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| Keywords: | land use cultivated land multifunction spatial panel economics spatial spillover spatial durbin model Zhejiang Province |
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