| 灰色关联度组合模型在涝灾预测中的应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 迟道才,沈亚西,陈涛涛,王堃,张兰芬,李雪.灰色关联度组合模型在涝灾预测中的应用[J].中国农村水利水电,2012,0(1):80-82. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 迟道才 沈亚西 陈涛涛 王堃 张兰芬 李雪 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 沈阳农业大学水利学院,沈阳,110866 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 辽宁省重大项目;辽宁省自然科学基金项目 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 传统灰色预测模型在涝灾预测中有较多应用，但其预测精度较低。为提高模型的预测精度，在传统灰色预测模型基础上加入灰色关联度分析，从灰色关联度的角度发现数据之间的依赖关系，运用灰色预测模型预测数据的发展走向。以沈阳市1960-2010年涝灾年份数据为依据，建立灰色关联度组合模型，应用结果表明，该模型比传统灰色预测模型效果好，为涝灾预测增添了新手段。
|
| 关 键 词： | 灰色预测 涝灾预测 灰色关联度 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011-09-14 |
| 修稿时间： | 2011-09-23 |
Application of grey relational combined model in waterlog prediction |
| |
| CHI Dao-cai,SHEN Ya-xi,CHEN Tao-tao,WANG Kun,ZHANG Lan-fen,LI Xue.Application of grey relational combined model in waterlog prediction[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2012,0(1):80-82. |
| |
| Authors: | CHI Dao-cai SHEN Ya-xi CHEN Tao-tao WANG Kun ZHANG Lan-fen LI Xue |
| |
| Institution: | (School of Water Conservancy and Hydropower,Shenyang Agricultural University,Shenyang 110866,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | Traditional grey prediction model have many of application in waterlog prediction, but it's precision is very low. To improve the prediction precision, this paper add grey relation application on the basis of traditional grey prediction model, the model finds dependency relationships of sequences based on the grey incidences degree, uses the grey prediction model to forecast the trend of development among data ,apply of 1980-2010's data of Shenyang, set up combined prediction model, the results show that the effect is better than traditional grey prediction model, added a new means to predict patterns. |
| |
| Keywords: | grey prediction waterlog prediction gray incidence degree |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《中国农村水利水电》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《中国农村水利水电》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
