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| 农业气象灾害综合评价中权重确定方法的研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 张 星,张春桂,吴菊薪.农业气象灾害综合评价中权重确定方法的研究[J].中国农学通报,2008,24(11):448-452. |
| 作者姓名： | 张 星 张春桂 吴菊薪 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 福建省气象局,福州,350001 2. 福建省气象科学研究所,福州,350001 3. 浙江省东阳市气象局,东阳,322100 |
| 基金项目： | 福建省自然科学基金，福建省科技厅科技计划 |
| 摘 要： | 摘 要 福建省气象灾害种类繁多，但对农业生产的影响程度并不相同，只有通过权重的科学确定才能正确评价农业气象综合灾情。如何确定灾害权重，是进行农业气象灾害综合评价的核心问题。本文将主、客观赋权方法（层次分析法、灰色关联分析和熵权法）应用于福建农业气象灾害综合评价中权重的确定，探讨和比较它们在计算气象灾害权重方面的适用性，并在此基础上提出同时体现主观和客观信息的组合赋权法，得到福建农业气象灾害的组合权重，由大到小依次为低温冻害、旱灾、洪涝、风雹。结果表明，由组合赋权法计算的各灾害指标组合权重相比任何一种主、客观方法都更为合理和可靠。 |
| 关 键 词： | 层次分析法 灰色关联分析 熵权法 农业气象灾害 组合权重 福建 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008/7/28 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 1/1/1900 12:00:00 AM |
Study on the Determination of the Weight of Index about Synthesis Assessment to Agro-meteorological Disasters |
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| Zhang Xing,Zhang Chungui,Wu Juxin.Study on the Determination of the Weight of Index about Synthesis Assessment to Agro-meteorological Disasters[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2008,24(11):448-452. | |
| Authors: | Zhang Xing Zhang Chungui Wu Juxin |
| Abstract: | There are too many meteorological disasters in Fujian Province, but the affected level are not same to agriculture, only through figuring the weight scientifically can to assess synthesis agro-meteorological disaster.How to confirm the weight of disasters is the main question issue in the agro-meteorological disaster integrative assess.The article introduce the traditional methods of the subjective and objective weighting method to calculate the main disasters weight including AHP grey relational analysis and entropy weight method, comparing their reasonability, and a new combination weighting approach is further put forward which not only embodies the statistical information of sample involved,but also exploits the experience of experts.At last, the combinational weight of agro-meteorological disasters was got.The result showed that the weight calculated by combination weighting approach was more rational and reliable than both of the subjective weighting method and objective weighting method. |
| Keywords: | AHP grey relational analysis entropy weight method agro-meteorological disasters combinational weight Fujian Province |
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