| 基于系统动力学的咸阳市水资源承载力 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄蕊,刘俊民,李燐楷.基于系统动力学的咸阳市水资源承载力[J].排灌机械,2012(1):57-63. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄蕊 刘俊民 李燐楷 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西杨凌712100 [2]中国水电顺问集团贵阳勘测设计研究院,贵州贵阳550003 |
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| 基金项目： | 基金项目：“十一五”国家科技支撑计划项目（2006BAD11B05）;国家自然科学基金资助项目（50879071） |
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| 摘 要： | 基于系统动力学的原理和方法,将水资源承载力系统划分为工业、农业、生活、生态、水资源和污水处理回用子系统,以缺水程度为主要反馈因子,考虑缺水时人们用水决策偏好,通过各子系统之间的反馈关系,建立了咸阳市水资源承载力系统动力学模型.模拟结果表明：按趋势发展型方案,咸阳市工业发展迅速,农业和生态用水被挤占,发展缓慢,规划年内缺水程度为9%～35%,为严重缺水;按资源环境保护型方案,生态环境得到良好保护,但工农业发展受到严重制约;按经济发展型方案,工业发展十分迅速,但农业灌溉面积减少,生态环境恶化,地下水超采严重,缺水情况仍存在,为3%～5%,发展可持续性差;按协调发展型方案,工农业保持13.8%发展速度,污水处理回用量增加,农业灌溉稳步发展,生态环境情况得到改善,缺水程度严重时约为0.4%,表明该方案是咸阳市水资源承载力可持续发展的最优方案.
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| 关 键 词： | 水资源承载力 系统动力学 反馈因子 生态环境 协调发展 |
Water resources carrying capacity of Xianyang City based on system dynamics |
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| Institution: | Huang Rui, Liu Junmin, Li Linkai ( 1. College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A ＆ F University, Yaugliug, Shaanxi 712100, China; 2 HydroChina Guiyang Engineering Corporation, Guiyang, Guizhou 550003, China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the principles and methods of system dynamics,carrying capacity of water resources system of Xianyang City is divided into industrial,agricultural,life and ecology,water and wastewater treatment and reuse subsystem.Regarding water shortage level as the main feedback factor,considering people’s decision-making preferences of using water when water is in shortage,a system dynamics model of water resources carrying capacity of Xianyang City was established by means of the feedback relationships between the various subsystems.The simulation results showed that if the city is being developed according to the trend-based development plan,it will be subject to severe water shortage（in a level of 9% to 35%） in planning year since the agricultural and ecological water was diverted to the rapidly developing industry.If the city is developed in the track of resource-based and environmental protection,the ecological environment will be protected very well;however,industrial and agricultural development will be severely constrained.If the city is adopted an economic develo-pment plane,even though industry development will be rapid,the city will be subject to agricultural irrigation decreased,environment degraded,serious over-exploitation of groundwater,causing 3%-5% water shortage,eventually leading to poor sustainable development.If the city is indicated to choose a coordinated development mode,a 13.8% growth rate of industry and agriculture will be maintained,more wastewater treated will be reused,agricultural irrigation area will be expanded steadily,and ecological environment will be improved in a great deal,water shortage will be as low as 0.4%.It suggests this plan is the optimal solution to make sure water resources carrying capacity of Xianyang City will be kept in sustainable manner. |
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| Keywords: | water resources carrying capacity system dynamics feedback factor environment coordinated development |
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