| 喀斯特石漠化地区耕地压力
动态变化分析与预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 李亮,但文红.喀斯特石漠化地区耕地压力
动态变化分析与预测[J].广东农业科学,2014,41(2):162-166. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李亮 但文红 |
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| 作者单位： | 贵州师范大学地理与环境科学学院贵州贵阳550001 |
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| 基金项目： | 贵州省科技厅项目黔科合SZ 字[2012]3018号
贵州省环保厅项目黔环科[2012]4 号贵州师范大学研究生创
新基金研[2013]15 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用MATLAB 软件在计算贵州省2000要2011 年耕地、人口粮食产量动态变化的基础上，分析耕地面
积、人口数量与耕地压力指数的变化特点；并采用DGM（1，1）离散预测模型对贵州省2015要2030 年的耕地压力指数
状况进行预测。结果表明，2000要2011 年间，贵州省耕地总量及人均耕地面积持续减少；人均粮食产量持续增加，人
口净流出加快，使得耕地压力指数波动减少，但耕地压力指数始终保持在1.0 以上粮食供给处于不安全状态
2015要2030 年，耕地压力指数将持续减少，粮食安全形势缓和。增加农业科技投入、农田基本建设和土地整治工作与
加快净流出人口数量，是减轻耕地压力保证粮食安全的根本途径。
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| 关 键 词： | 耕地压力指数 DGM 1 1 离散预测模型 粮食安全 贵州省 |
Analysis and prediction of cultivated land pressure
index in the Karst rock desertification |
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| Abstract: | Based on calculating the dynamic change of land, population, grain output in 2000 -2011 by using
MATLAB software, change characteristics of cultivated land area, population and the pressure index of cultivated land in
Guizhou province were analyzed, and DGM (1,1) discrete model was used to forecast the cultivated land pressure index in
2015-2030. The results showed that the total cultivated land and per capita area of cultivated land continued decreasing,
but the net outflow of population accelerated, at the same time the per capita grain output continued increasing, the
cultivated land pressure index volatility reduced, cultivated land pressure index kept above 1.0, food supply was unsafe in
Guizhou province in 2000-2011. The cultivated land pressure index will continue to reduce and the food security situation
eases in 2015-2030. The result indicates that it is the basic way to reduce the pressure of cultivated land and ensure food
security by increasing the agricultural investment in science and technology, strengthening the basic construction of
farmland and land rectification work, speeding up the net outflow of population |
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| Keywords: | cultivated land pressure index DGM(1 1) discrete forecast model grain security Guizhou province |
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