| 南水北调东线山东段干渠突发水质污染事故快速预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵然杭,彭弢,王好芳,张联州,齐真.南水北调东线山东段干渠突发水质污染事故快速预测[J].农业工程学报,2018,34(8):93-99. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵然杭 彭弢 王好芳 张联州 齐真 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东大学土建与水利学院;山东省水利科学研究院 |
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| 基金项目： | 十二五国家科技支撑项目"南水北调河渠湖库联合调控关键技术研究与示范"（2015BAB07B02）;山东省水利厅、山东省重大水利科研与技术推广专项资助项目"山东省区域水网运行管理技术与生态效应研究"（SDSLKY201501）与"跨流域调水工程水资源优化配置及供水决策支持系统研究"（SDSLKY201222） |
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| 摘 要： | 突发水污染事件快速预测是突发事故发生后及时采取有效应急控制和处置措施的基础。该文在对南水北调山东段干渠典型突发水污染事故仿真模拟的基础上,依据污染输移转化规律经验公式,建立了突发水质污染事故快速预测模型。利用南水北调山东段干渠典型突发水污染事故的仿真模拟结果对快速预测模型进行了参数率定与检验,通过与利用计算机数值模拟结果比较分析,该预测方法预测的影响时间与影响范围的相对误差分别在0.52%~4.83%和0.23%~7.15%,均低于10%,满足精度要求。该方法对于提供长距离调水工程极端情况的输水安全保障具有重要意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 水质 污染 模型 南水北调 突发水质污染事故 快速预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017/7/4 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018/3/10 0:00:00 |
Rapid prediction of sudden water pollution accident in main canal of Shandong section of East Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project |
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| Zhao Ranhang,Peng Tao,Wang Haofang,Zhang Lianzhou and Qi Zhen.Rapid prediction of sudden water pollution accident in main canal of Shandong section of East Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2018,34(8):93-99. |
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| Authors: | Zhao Ranhang Peng Tao Wang Haofang Zhang Lianzhou and Qi Zhen |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Civil Engineering and Hydraulic Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250061, China;,1. School of Civil Engineering and Hydraulic Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250061, China;,1. School of Civil Engineering and Hydraulic Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250061, China;,2. Water Conservancy Research Institute of Shandong Province, Jinan 250014, China and 1. School of Civil Engineering and Hydraulic Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250061, China; |
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| Abstract: | Abstract: The East Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project is a trans basin, long distance, large and comprehensive water diversion project to alleviate the contradiction between the supply and demand of water resources in the eastern part of China and support the sustainable development of the national economy and society in this region. Since the construction of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, water safety and water quality guarantee have been a hot issue. In the middle line project, there has been a large number of researches concentrated in the source and the Beijing section. While in the east line project, the Shandong section, has already carried out the risk assessment of water transportation safety and the simulation of hydrodynamic water quality. In Shandong section, canals are mostly open type, crossing several local traffic roads, and some of the rivers and lakes bear the task of shipping. Therefore, the water conveyance safety is threatened by many potential water pollution accidents. In order to take effective emergency control and disposal measures in case of an emergency, it is necessary to carry out rapid prediction of the sudden water pollution events in the South-to-North Water Transfer project. Literature retrieval shows that, at present, many scholars at home and abroad have established a large number of simulation models with the aid of model software, but all of them need a large amount of basic data, and the operation of the model needs a lot of time. The sudden water pollution accident often happened suddenly, with random and acute. Once the sudden water pollution accident occurs, it is urgent to make a decision, and there is no time to run the simulation model to predict. So the rapid prediction is still an important problem for the scholars at home and abroad to study the sudden water pollution events. At present, there is no model to predict the process of the changes of pollutants quickly and accurately. Considering about all the situations above, based on the risk identification of water pollution incident in the main water transfer canal of Shandong section of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, this study simulated some typical water pollution accidents in different canals of Shandong section. Also based on the transport and transformation of empirical formula of pollution, this study established a rapid prediction model of sudden water pollution accidents, and determined the parameters of the fast prediction model by using the simulation results of the main channel of the Shandong section of the South-to-North Water Transfer project. Finally, we used the results of computer numerical simulation to test the prediction results of the rapid prediction model. The test results showed that the relative error of influencing time and influencing range predicted by rapid prediction model were 0.52%-4.83% and 0.23%-7.15%, none of them were more than 10%. So it conclude that the established rapid prediction model can accurately predict the sudden water pollution accidents in the trunk section of the Shandong Section of the South to North Water Transfer project. |
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| Keywords: | water quality pollution models South-to-North Water Transfer Project sudden water pollution accidents rapid prediction |
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