| 基于毕达哥拉斯模糊AHP的南水北调中线总干渠运行风险评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 汪伦焰,袁晨晖,李慧敏,李锋,李稳敏.基于毕达哥拉斯模糊AHP的南水北调中线总干渠运行风险评价[J].中国农村水利水电,2021(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 汪伦焰 袁晨晖 李慧敏 李锋 李稳敏 |
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| 作者单位： | 华北水利水电大学水利学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划课题资助项目(2018YFC0406905)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 长距离调水工程投资大、影响范围广、地质情况多样、风险因素众多、工程结构十分复杂。这些特点意味着对此类工程进行风险评价研究的必要性。建立了南水北调中线总干渠运行安全风险评价指标体系,以毕达哥拉斯模糊层次分析法计算出指标的概率、严重程度的权重,构建了结合Fine Kinney评价方法和模糊推理系统的风险评价模型。最后选取南水北调中线工程河南段输水渠道,进行了运行安全评价并确定了风险等级。评价结果显示,地质条件、施工质量、运行调度风险位居前列。
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| 关 键 词： | 风险综合评价 Fine Kinney法 毕达哥拉斯模糊AHP 模糊推理系统 南水北调渠道 |
Risk Evaluation of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Main Channel Project Based on Pythagorean Fuzzy AHP |
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| WANG Lun-yan,YUAN Chen-hui,LI Hui-min,LI Feng,LI Wen-min.Risk Evaluation of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Main Channel Project Based on Pythagorean Fuzzy AHP[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2021(1). |
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| Authors: | WANG Lun-yan YUAN Chen-hui LI Hui-min LI Feng LI Wen-min |
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| Institution: | (School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China) |
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| Abstract: | Long-distance water transfer projects are characterized by a large investment,a wide range of influences,diverse geological conditions,numerous risk factors,and complex engineering structures.These characteristics mean that it is necessary to carry out risk assessment research on such projects.In this paper,an index system of operational safety risk assessment for the central route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project is established.The Pythagorean fuzzy analytic method is used to calculate the index weights of the probability and severity.The risk evaluation model combining the fine Kinney method and the fuzzy inference system is constructed.Finally,the operation safety of the water conveyance channel in the Henan section is selected to evaluate and determine the risk level.The evaluation results show that geological conditions,construction quality and operation scheduling risk are in the forefront. |
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| Keywords: | comprehensive evaluation of risk Fine Kinney Method Pythagorean Fuzzy AHP fuzzy inference system channel project of South-to-North water diversion |
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