| 两种有效的预测方法理论分析及实践 |
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| 引用本文： | 王维新,林燕燕.两种有效的预测方法理论分析及实践[J].农机化研究,2006(4):86-87. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王维新 林燕燕 |
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| 作者单位： | 石河子大学,机电学院,新疆,石河子,832003 |
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| 摘 要： | 预算实际上是一种建模,即根据过去和现在已有的信息建立一个从过去引伸到未来的模型。而时序分析法和灰色系统理论是两种有效的预测方法。为此,介绍了这两种预测方法的原理,并预测了新疆兵团的农机情况。其结果表明:未来10年,新疆农机总动力和投入将会有较大幅度的增长,而农业机械化程度将趋于最高值。
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| 关 键 词： | 农业基础科学 预测方法 分析 灰色序列 时间序列 农业机械 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-188X（2006）04-0086-02 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-03-31 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年3月31日 |
Theory of Two Valid Forecasting Method and its Usage in Practice |
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| WANG Wei-xin,LIN Yan-yan.Theory of Two Valid Forecasting Method and its Usage in Practice[J].Journal of Agricultural Mechanization Research,2006(4):86-87. |
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| Authors: | WANG Wei-xin LIN Yan-yan |
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| Institution: | Meehan-Eleetri Engi Col, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832003, China |
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| Abstract: | Time series analyses and Gray system theory are two valid methods for forecasting. In this paper, the theories of the two methods were introduced in detail, as well; they were used in forecasting for farming machines of Xinjiang. The result shows that the total power will increase in large range, but machines degree will be saturated. |
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| Keywords: | agricultural basic science forecasting methods analysis gray system time series farming machines |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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