| "藏粮于地"视角下西北地区耕地适宜性及开发潜力评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 毕玮,党小虎,马慧,邓铭江,李鹏,曹小曙,时鹏."藏粮于地"视角下西北地区耕地适宜性及开发潜力评价[J].农业工程学报,2021,37(7):235-243. |
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| 作者姓名： | 毕玮 党小虎 马慧 邓铭江 李鹏 曹小曙 时鹏 |
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| 作者单位： | 西安科技大学测绘科学与技术学院,西安 710055;西安科技大学地质与环境学院,西安 710055;延长县森林防火指挥部,延安 717199;新疆额尔齐斯河流域开发工程建设管理局,乌鲁木齐 830000;西安理工大学省部共建西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室,西安 710055;旱区生态水文与侵蚀灾害防治国家林业局重点实验室,西安 710055;陕西师范大学自然资源与国土空间研究院/西北城镇化与国土环境空间模拟重点实验室,西安710062 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国工程院咨询研究项目（2020-XZ-15）;十三五国家重点研发计划课题（2016YFC0501707） |
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| 摘 要： | 中国耕地资源匮乏,人均耕地不足世界平均水平的40%。西北"水三线"地区是中国耕地后备资源的关键区域,识别潜在耕地资源中适宜开发的土地数量及空间分布,对确保极端情况下国家耕地红线和粮食安全、推动西部大开发进入新格局具有重大现实意义。基于多源栅格数据,采用综合指数法与极限条件法评价潜在耕地资源的自然适宜性潜力;同时考虑土地利用结构风险、土壤侵蚀风险、土地荒漠化风险限制,构建潜在耕地开发的生态风险模型;将自然适宜性潜力和生态风险评价结果进行叠置分级,评估潜在耕地资源的综合开发潜力。结果表明:旱地农业情景下,西北"水三线"地区具备耕地开发潜力的土地面积约0.2万km~2,主要分布在内蒙古半干旱草原区;灌溉农业情景下,西北"水三线"地区具备耕地开发潜力的土地面积约9.5×10~4 km~2,这些土地需要通过引水灌溉和土壤改良等措施才能实现粮食生产,主要集中在天山北麓、塔里木河流域、疏勒河流域和内蒙古东部等内陆干旱区,未来如果具备灌溉水源条件,实施适宜的土壤改良措施,有较大可开发潜力。
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| 关 键 词： | 模型 适宜性评价 生态风险 西北 "水三线" 潜在耕地资源 藏粮于地 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020/12/12 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021/3/7 0:00:00 |
Evaluation of arable land suitability and potential from the perspective of "Food Crop Production Strategy based on Farmland Management" in northwest China |
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| Bi Wei,Dang Xiaohu,Ma Hui,Deng Mingjiang,Li Peng,Cao Xiaoshu,Shi Peng.Evaluation of arable land suitability and potential from the perspective of "Food Crop Production Strategy based on Farmland Management" in northwest China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2021,37(7):235-243. |
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| Authors: | Bi Wei Dang Xiaohu Ma Hui Deng Mingjiang Li Peng Cao Xiaoshu Shi Peng |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Geomatics, Xi''an University of Science and Technology, Xi''an 710055, China;;2. College of Geology and Environment, Xi''an University of Science and Technology, Xi''an 710055, China;;3. Yanchang County Forest Fire Prevention Headquarters Office, Yan''an 717199, China;;4. Xinjiang Ertix River Basin Development Engineering Construction Management Bureau, Urumqi 830000, China;;5. Key Laboratory Base of Eco-hydraulic Engineering in Arid Area, Xi''an University of Technology, Xi''an 710055, China; 6. Key Laboratory of National Forestry Administration on Ecological Hydrology and Disaster Prevention in Arid Regions, Xi''an 710055, China;;7. Academy of Natural Resources and Territorial Space / Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Environment Simulator in Northwest China, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi''an 710062, China; |
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| Abstract: | Arable land in China is relatively scarce in terms of per capita, less than 40% of the world average. A large potential land area can be found for food production in Northwestern China, particularly with a low population density and relatively nice natural conditions. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the amount and spatial distribution of suitable land resources, thereby determining optimal cultivated land use for food production in China. In this study, a feasible model was established for the arable land resources to evaluate naturally suitable land potential for the cultivation, combining the comprehensive index method with limiting conditions and spatial analysis in geographic information system (GIS) from the standpoint of the suitability of land cultivation. 10 indicators were chosen from 4 factors in a multi-source raster dataset, including topography, hydrothermal, edaphic and ecological condition. The hydrothermal condition served as the baseline to distinguish the scenario of dryland and irrigated agriculture in different planting modes. An evaluation model of ecological risk was also established, including the risk of land use, soil erosion, and land desertification. The ecological security caused by land development was considered, where the potential arable land with better natural quality cannot partially assume the low risk of land development. Finally, the quantity, quality and spatial pattern of potential lands were assessed available for cropland, integrating the natural suitability with the ecological risk for cultivation. The results indicated that: 1) There was an obvious east-west differentiation in the distribution and spatial change of cultivated land in Northwest China. Specifically, the increasing area of arable land was distributed mainly in Xinjiang, whereas, the decreasing area was in Loess Plateau. 2) In dryland agriculture, the potential cultivated land was distributed mostly in the Tumochuan Plains on the south side of the Yinshan Mountains, where the specific area was about 0.2×104 km2, accounting for 0.06% of the total area of Northwest China. In irrigated agriculture, the most suitable land resource for cultivation was distributed mainly at the northern foot of Tianshan Mountain and the oasis along the Tarim River Basin, where the area was about 9.5×104 km2, accounting for 2.75% of the total area of Northwest China. Some land resources were required for the inevitable irrigation and soil improvement when planting crops, which were distributed mainly in arid inland areas, such as northern piedmont of the Tianshan Mountains, Tarim River basin, Shule River basin and eastern Inner Mongolia. There was a great potential for arable lands, if the irrigation water source was available, while the appropriate soil improvement measures were implemented in the future. The finding can facilitate the further scientific planning of water use and rational development layout of cultivated land resources, thereby relieving current land pressure for a better ecological environment. |
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| Keywords: | models suitability evaluation ecological risk northwest China the "Three Water-limited Lines" strategy potential arable land resources the Food Embodied in Potential Cropland |
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