| 气候变化背景下山西省气象干旱时空演变特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 姚宁,蒋昆昊,谢文馨,张东彦,杨晓娟,于强.气候变化背景下山西省气象干旱时空演变特征[J].农业机械学报,2024,55(1):270-281. |
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| 作者姓名： | 姚宁 蒋昆昊 谢文馨 张东彦 杨晓娟 于强 |
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| 作者单位： | 西北农林科技大学;中国农业科学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（52209070）和国家外国专家项目（QN2022172005L） |
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| 摘 要： | 干旱频发对生态资源、农业发展造成了严重影响，为揭示山西省干旱时空演变特征，基于1971—2020年山西省24个气象站点的逐月气象资料，利用改进的Mann-Kendall方法检验各气象因子的年变化趋势，采用FAO56 Penman-Monteith公式计算参考作物腾发量（ET0），分析单个气象因子变化情况下ET0的变化特征和对气象因子的敏感性，比较各时间尺度（月、季、年尺度）不同干旱指数（降水距平百分率（Pa）、标准化降水指数（SPI）和标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI））对山西省干旱灾害监测能力。结果表明：ET0与相对湿度呈负相关，气象因子对ET0的敏感性由大到小依次为相对湿度、日最高气温、2m处风速、日最低气温、日平均气温，ET0呈波动下降趋势。SPEI能够在多时间尺度上有效反映山西省干旱状况，是该地区干旱监测的有效工具。在月、季、年尺度下，比较3个干旱指数， Pa检测效果较差，〖JP2〗SPI和SPEI在某些地理区域存在较大差异，整体而言，SPEI在多数地区检测干旱的性能更好；SPEI-1〖JP〗尺度下，各干旱等级发生频率由大到小依次为轻旱（14.8%）、中旱（10.6%）、重旱（5.6%）、特旱（1.9%），3月干旱发生率最高（34%），12月发生率最低（31.8%），吕梁市、晋中市、大同市干旱情况较为严重；SPEI-3尺度下，季节发生干旱频率由大到小依次为秋季（33.5%）、夏季（32.5%）、春季（31.9%）、冬季（31.4%），大同市、长治市特旱发生频率最高，旱情最为严重，忻州市轻旱频率、朔州市中旱频率、吕梁市重旱频率最高；SPEI-12尺度下，轻、中、重、特旱频率分别为14.8%、10.5%、5.4%、2.3%，SPEI-12相较SPEI-1和SPEI-3识别重旱、特旱的站点更多，并基于游程理论得出，山西省南部干旱频次更多，东部干旱历时更长、干旱严重程度更大，干旱峰值主要出现在山西省南北部，由于年均降水呈波动性下降，年均气温整体上升，山西省的气候趋于暖干化，南北部旱情将有所加重，中部地区旱情有所减缓，全域性干旱仍有很大发生可能。
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| 关 键 词： | 干旱指数 干旱特征 参考作物腾发量 游程理论 山西省 |
| 收稿时间： | 2023/6/13 0:00:00 |
Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Drought Disasters in Shanxi Province under Background of Climate Change |
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| YAO Ning,JIANG Kunhao,XIE Wenxin,ZHANG Dongyan,YANG Xiaojuan,YU Qiang.Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Drought Disasters in Shanxi Province under Background of Climate Change[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Machinery,2024,55(1):270-281. |
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| Authors: | YAO Ning JIANG Kunhao XIE Wenxin ZHANG Dongyan YANG Xiaojuan YU Qiang |
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| Institution: | Northwest A&F University;Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences |
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| Abstract: | Frequent droughts caused serious impacts on ecological resources and agricultural development. In order to reveal the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of drought in Shanxi Province, based on the month-by-month meteorological data from 24 meteorological stations in Shanxi Province from 1971 to 2020, the annual trends of each meteorological factor were examined by using the improved Mann-Kendall method, and the FAO56 Penman-Monteith formula was used to calculate the reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) of reference crop emergence, analyze the characteristics of ET0 and its sensitivity to meteorological factors under the changes of individual meteorological factors, and compare the ability of different drought indices (percentage of precipitation anomaly (Pa), standardized precipitation index (SPI), and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)) in monitoring drought hazards in Shanxi Province at various time scales (monthly, seasonal, and annual scales). The results showed that ET0 was negatively correlated with relative humidity, and the sensitivity of meteorological factors to ET0 was in descending order of relative humidity, daily maximum temperature, wind speed at 2m, daily minimum temperature, daily average temperature, with a fluctuating and decreasing trend of ET0. SPEI was able to reflect the drought condition of Shanxi Province effectively in multiple time scales, which was an effective tool for drought monitoring in this region. Comparing the three drought indices at monthly, seasonal and annual scales, Pa was less effective in detecting droughts, SPI and SPEI differed significantly in some geographic regions, and overall, SPEI performed better in detecting droughts in most regions; at the SPEI-1 scale, the frequency of each drought class in descending order was light drought (14.8%), moderate drought (10.6%), severe drought (5.6%), extreme drought (1.9%), with the highest occurrence rate of drought in March (34%) and the lowest in December (31.8%), and more severe drought conditions in Lüliang City, Jinzhong City, and Datong City; under the SPEI-3 scale, the frequency of seasonal drought, in descending order, was in the fall (33.5%), summer (32.5%), spring (31.9%), and winter (31.4%), and Datong City, Changzhi City had the highest frequency of special drought and the most serious drought, and Xinzhou City, Shuozhou City, and Lüliang City had the highest frequency of light, moderate, and severe drought, respectively; at the SPEI-12 scale, the frequencies of light, moderate, severe, and special drought were 14.8%, 10.5%, 5.4%, and 2.3%, respectively, and SPEI-12 recognized more sites with severe and special drought compared with SPEI-1 and SPEI-3, and based on the travel theory, it was concluded that the frequency of drought in southern Shanxi Province was higher than that of other provinces in China. It was concluded that the frequency of drought was more frequent in the southern part of Shanxi Province, the drought in the eastern part lasted longer and the severity of drought was greater, and the peak of drought mainly occurred in the northern and southern parts of Shanxi Province. Due to the fluctuating decline of the mean annual precipitation and the overall increase of the mean annual temperature, the climate in Shanxi Province tended to be warm and dry, the drought in the southern and northern parts of Shanxi Province would be aggravated, the drought in the central part of Shanxi Province would be slowed down, and the whole-area drought was still very possible. |
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| Keywords: | drought index drought characteristics reference crop evapotranspiration travel theory Shanxi Province |
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