| 黑龙江省东部地区大豆灰斑病短期预测模型的建立 |
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| 引用本文： | 顾鑫,杨国珍,丁俊杰,刘伟,杨晓贺,赵海红,姚亮亮.黑龙江省东部地区大豆灰斑病短期预测模型的建立[J].黑龙江农业科学,2014(12):67-69. |
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| 作者姓名： | 顾鑫 杨国珍 丁俊杰 刘伟 杨晓贺 赵海红 姚亮亮 |
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| 作者单位： | 黑龙江省农业科学院佳木斯分院;农业部佳木斯作物有害生物科学观测试验站; |
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| 基金项目： | 公益性行业(农业)科研专项经费资助项目(201103022-5-06) |
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| 摘 要： | 为了在大豆灰斑病的大发生年能够准确及时地预测病害发生情况,避免严重的损失,于2005~2013年在黑龙江省东部地区定点、定期调查大豆灰斑病的发生情况,并采集大豆灰斑病侵染期的气象因子,采用逐步回归的方法对大豆灰斑病的流行进行了短期预测,得方程:Y=-62.22-0.54 X2+0.16 X4+0.19 X5+0.12 X6+0.12 X7-0.07 X8+0.13 X9。利用该方程对2011~2013年进行回归拟合,可以看出其拟合效果非常好,因此,可利用该方程对黑龙江省东部地区大豆灰斑病的发生发展进行中短期预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 大豆灰斑病 逐步回归分析 预测模型 |
Short Term Prediction Model for Soybean Frogeye Leaf Spot in the East of Heilongjiang Province |
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| GU Xin,YANG Guo-zhen,DING Jun-jie,LIU Wei,YANG Xiao-He,ZHAO Hai-hong,YAO Liang-liang.Short Term Prediction Model for Soybean Frogeye Leaf Spot in the East of Heilongjiang Province[J].Heilongjiang Agricultural Science,2014(12):67-69. |
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| Authors: | GU Xin YANG Guo-zhen DING Jun-jie LIU Wei YANG Xiao-He ZHAO Hai-hong YAO Liang-liang |
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| Institution: | (Ministry of Agriculture Harmful Biology of Crop Scientific Monitoring Station of Jiamusi Experiment Station,Jiamusi Branch of Heilongjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Jiamusi, Heilongjiang 154007) |
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| Abstract: | In order to accurately predict the occurrence of soybean frogeye leaf spot in the future to avoid serious loss,fixed-point method was used to investigat the soybean frogeye leaf spot from 2005 to 2013in soybean field in east area of Heilongjiang province.The meteorological factors in the infection period of soybean frogeye leaf spot were collected and used the stepwise regression method to make short-term prediction.Geted the equation：Y=-62.22-0.54 X2＋0.16 X4＋0.19 X5＋0.12 X6＋0.12 X7-0.07 X8＋0.13 X9.And it was fitted to the prediction of 2011~2013.It would forecast the occurrence and development of soybean frogeye leaf spot in the east of Heilongjiang province. |
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| Keywords: | soybean frogeye leaf spot stepwise regression analysis prediction model |
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