| 评价全球气候变化对我国玉米生产的可能影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 金之庆,葛道阔.评价全球气候变化对我国玉米生产的可能影响[J].作物学报,1996,22(5):513-524. |
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| 作者姓名： | 金之庆 葛道阔 |
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| 作者单位： | 江苏省农业科学院农业现代化研究所，江苏南京，210014 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目“全球气候变暖对我国粮食生产的影响”的部分内容,批准号为:39170467 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用我国玉米带１２个有代表性地点的作物、土壤和天气资料，验证了ＣＥＲＥＳ－Ｍａｉｚｅ在我国的适用性，确定了各地有代表性品种在模型中的遗传参数，还对模型进行了敏感性分析，之后，将ＣＥＲＥＳ－Ｍａｉｚｅ在各地当前气候以及在３中由平衡ＧＣＭｓ生成的气候变化情景下分别运行，通过分析与比较模拟结果，评价了当ＣＯ２倍增时，气候变化国各地玉米产量和灌溉需要量的可能影响，对Ｃ煌直接影响也做了考虑。还应用若干农业气
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 中国 玉米生产 |
| 收稿时间： | 1995-05-23 |
| 修稿时间： | 1995-11-07 |
Assessing the Potential Impacts of Global Climate Change on Maize Production in China |
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| Jin Zhiqing,Ge Daokuo,Zheng Xilian,Chen Hua.Assessing the Potential Impacts of Global Climate Change on Maize Production in China[J].Acta Agronomica Sinica,1996,22(5):513-524. |
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| Authors: | Jin Zhiqing Ge Daokuo Zheng Xilian Chen Hua |
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| Institution: | Lnstitute of Agricultural Modernization,Jiangsu Academyy of Agricultural Sciences,Nanjing,Jiangsu,210014 |
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| Abstract: | The CERES-Maize model was calibrated and validated for 12 locations in China's Maize Belt to examine its suitability to model maize production in the region, using the local agronomic, soil and weather data for three or more successive years. After making sensitivity analysis and determining the genetic coefficients for the local cultivars. the CERES-Maize was run again for the same locations under the current climates and the three doubled CO2 climate change scenarios generated from the GISS. GFDL and UKMO equilibrium GCMS. Based on the simulated results analysis, the impacts of climate change with a doubling of CO2 on maize growth duration, yield and irrigation demand in China's Maize Belt were evaluated. Also, changes in moisture status, the northern limits for summer-and autumn-sowing maize, as well as varietal disposition were estimated by employing several agroclimatic indices. Finally, some strategies were advanced for adapting climate change in future. The results presented in this study should not be regarded as predictions, but as plausible assessments of the potential impact effects of climate change on maize production in China. |
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| Keywords: | Global climate change China Maize production |
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