| 近60年开都河源区径流演变及驱动因素定量分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙 月,刘思海,邢 坤,谢 蕾,郑灵巧,刘 源.近60年开都河源区径流演变及驱动因素定量分析[J].水生态学杂志,2023,44(6):10-18. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙 月 刘思海 邢 坤 谢 蕾 郑灵巧 刘 源 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆大学,新疆大学 |
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| 基金项目： | 新疆财政厅《南疆新增水资源战略研究》专项课题（403-1005-YBN-FT6I）；天池博士计划项目（tcbs201823）；博士科研启动基金项目（BS180241） |
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| 摘 要： | 基于开都河大山口水文观测站径流量实测数据，利用Mann-Kendall趋势和突变检验以及累积距平法，分析开都河近60年的径流和降水演变规律，利用双累积曲线法定量研究降水和人类活动对开都河径流变化的贡献量。结果表明：（1）开都河年径流量波动较小，多年平均值、最大和最小值分别为35.44×108m3、57.09×108m3和24.61×108m3。（2）径流量整体呈上升趋势，以0.166×108m3/a的速率递增，于1995年发生由少到多的突变。（3）开都河源区降水年际变化较小，多年平均值、最大和最小值分别为271.48mm、406.6mm以及191.4mm，且在1998年发生突变。（4）在径流量增加过程中，降水和人类活动对其贡献率分别为68.2%、31.8%；影响量分别为4.71×108 m3和2.2×108 m3。研究成果为开都河源区水资源管理、利用和水土流失整治提供数据基础和决策依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 开都河 径流 驱动因素 突变分析 双累积曲线 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021/12/23 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2022/1/2 0:00:00 |
Quantitative Analysis of Discharge and Driving Factors in the Headwaters of Kaidu River over 60 Years |
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| SUN Yue,LIU Si-hai,XING Kun,XIE Lei,ZHENG ling-qiao,LIU yuan.Quantitative Analysis of Discharge and Driving Factors in the Headwaters of Kaidu River over 60 Years[J].Journal of Hydroecology,2023,44(6):10-18. |
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| Authors: | SUN Yue LIU Si-hai XING Kun XIE Lei ZHENG ling-qiao LIU yuan |
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| Institution: | Xinjiang University,Xinjiang University |
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| Abstract: | Based on the runoff data from the Dashankou hydrological observation station of the Kaidu River, the Mann-Kendall trend and abrupt change tests and the cumulative distance level method were used to analyze the runoff and precipitation evolution patterns of the Kaidu River in the past 60 years, and the contribution of precipitation and human activities to the runoff changes of the Kaidu River was quantified using the double cumulative curve method. The results show that: (1) the annual runoff of the Kaidu River fluctuates relatively little, with the multi-year average, maximum and minimum values being 35.44×108m3, 57.09×108m3 and 24.61×108m3 respectively; (2) the overall trend of runoff increases at a rate of 0.166×108m3/a, with a sudden change from less to more in 1995. (3) The inter-annual variation of precipitation in the source area of the Kaidu River is small, with the multi-year average, maximum and minimum values being 271.48mm, 406.6mm and 191.4mm respectively, with an abrupt change in 1998. (4) The contribution of precipitation and human activities to the increase of runoff is 68.2% and 31.8% respectively, and the impact amounts are 4.71×108 m3 and 2.2×108 m3. The research results provide a data base and decision basis for water resources management, utilization and soil erosion remediation in the Kaidu River source area. |
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| Keywords: | Kaidu River Runoff Drivers Abrupt Change Analysis Double Mass Curve |
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