| 粮食最低收购价政策对我国小麦种植面积的影响机理分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 金婷,刘波,刘强,刘帅,徐定成.粮食最低收购价政策对我国小麦种植面积的影响机理分析[J].南方农业学报,2018,49(2):397-402. |
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| 作者姓名： | 金婷 刘波 刘强 刘帅 徐定成 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江农林大学 经济管理学院,杭州,311300河北工程大学 水利水电学院,河北 邯郸,0560382浙江农林大学 经济管理学院,杭州311300浙江省农民发展研究中心,杭州311300 |
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| 基金项目： | 浙江省软科学研究计划项目杭州市哲学社会科学规划项目浙江省大学生科技创新活动计划项目河北省科学技术研究发展计划项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的]分析我国6个小麦主产区省份小麦种植面积的影响机理,为保障其种植面积及维护粮食安全提供政策参考.方法]以小麦种植面积作为粮食最低收购价(政策)实施效果的评价标准,采用固定效应系数模型定量分析小麦最低收购价、家庭负担系数、城乡收入差距、农业机械总动力和外出务工人员比例对小麦种植面积的影响.结果]影响小麦种植面积的因素各省份存在差异,四川省的主要影响因素是小麦最低收购价,其次是城乡收入差距;湖北省的主要影响因素是城乡收入差距;农业机械总动力对安徽、山东和江苏3省的影响程度最大;外出务工人员比例对安徽、山东、河南和四川4省份的小麦种植面积呈正向影响,且对河南省的影响程度最高,但对湖北和江苏的小麦种植面积呈负向影响.建议]制定差异化的地方配套政策,提高政策针对性与适用性;推进农业供给侧结构性改革,补足粮食生产制度短板;完善农业社会化服务体系,提高粮食机械化服务水平.
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| 关 键 词： | 最低收购价 小麦种植面积 固定效应系数模型 影响因素 |
Impact mechanism of the minimum grain purchase price policy on wheat planting areas in China |
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| JIN Ting,LIU Bo,LIU Qiang,LIU Shuai,XU Ding-cheng.Impact mechanism of the minimum grain purchase price policy on wheat planting areas in China[J].Journal of Southern Agriculture,2018,49(2):397-402. |
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| Authors: | JIN Ting LIU Bo LIU Qiang LIU Shuai XU Ding-cheng |
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| Abstract: | Objective]Impact mechanism of wheat planting areas in six main wheat planting provinces in China was studied to provide reference for ensuring wheat planting areas and maintaining grain security.Method]Wheat planting areas were set as the evaluation standard for the implementation of minimum grain purchase price policy.A fixed effect variable coefficient model of quantitative analysis were used to research the impacts of minimum purchase price of wheat, family burden coefficient,income gap between urban and rural areas,agricultural machinery total power and proportion of migrant workers on wheat planting areas.Result]There were differences in the factors affecting the planting area of wheat in the six provinces.The main influencing factors in Sichuan Province were the minimum purchase price of wheat, followed by income gap between urban and rural areas.The main influencing factor in Hubei Province was income gap be-tween urban and rural areas. Total power of agricultural machinery had the greatest influence on Anhui,Shandong and Jiangsu.Proportion of migrant workers in Anhui,Shandong,Henan,Sichuan had positive impact on wheat planting areas, and the impact on Henan Province was the maximum. But proportion of migrant workers had positive impact on wheat planting areas in Hubei and Jiangsu.Suggestion]The following suggestions are proposed:to formulate differentiated local supporting policies to improve policy pertinence and applicability;to promote agricultural supply-side structural reforms to make up for the weak point in grain production system;to improve agricultural socialization service system and to raise the level of agricultural mechanization services. |
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