| 中国农业EKC研究：以化肥为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘扬,陈劭锋,张云芳.中国农业EKC研究：以化肥为例[J].中国农学通报,2009,25(16):263-267. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘扬 陈劭锋 张云芳 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京,100190
2. 中国农业大学,北京,100083 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所所长基金，国家自然科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 【研究目的】针对我国农业经济发展与环境关系的演变问题，开展农业环境库兹尼茨曲线研究，验证农业经济增长与农用化肥使用量间的倒U型曲线关系。【方法】本文采用非线性回归的方法，对我国及31个省市1952到2007年间的化肥、人口、农业总产值数据进行实证分析；【结果】结果表明，除少数省市外，我国和大部分省市的化肥投入量无论在人均还是总量上都与人均农业总产值间存在着倒U型曲线关系，且均已出现拐点并跨越峰值，说明我国化肥的投入量已出现整体的下降趋势。而部分出现倒U的省市化肥投入量还将持续增长一段时间。【结论】总的来说，我国化肥投入为增产手段的趋势已基本得到了扭转，人们消费行为和农业生产方式的转变是主要因素。
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| 关 键 词： | 农药残留 农药残留 毒死蜱 蔬菜 |
| 收稿时间： | 2009/6/16 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 7/6/2009 12:00:00 AM |
Study on Chinese Agricultural EKC: Evidence from Fertilizer |
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| Liu Yang,Chen Shaofeng,Zhang Yunfang.Study on Chinese Agricultural EKC: Evidence from Fertilizer[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2009,25(16):263-267. |
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| Authors: | Liu Yang Chen Shaofeng Zhang Yunfang |
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| Institution: | Liu Yang, Chen Shaofeng, Zhang Yunfang(1Institute of Policy and Management Science, CAS, Beijing 100190; 2China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083) |
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| Abstract: | On account of evolution of the relationship between Chinese agricultural economic development and environment, this paper carries out an EKC research to find evidence of an inverse U-shaped relationship between economic growth and fertilizer use. By using nonlinear regression method, this paper analyzed fertilizer, population and agricultural output value (AOV) data from 1949 to 2007 year in China. The result showed that, there was not only an inverse U-shaped relationship between per capita fertilizer use and per capita AOV in China, but also total fertilizer use. Moreover, except 4 provinces, there was a turning point between per capita fertilizer use and per capita AOV in most provinces of China. But just only 7 provinces had a downward tendency of fertilizer use. The fertilizer use of most other provinces was still increasing. Except income level, there were some important factors such as technological progress, mode of production and price, which also had an impact on fertilizer use. So there still need to make more intensive study of agricultural EKC. |
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| Keywords: | environmental Kuznets curve population per capita fertilizer use per capita agricultural output Value |
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