| 未来气候变暖对褐飞虱越冬界限的影响分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡朝兴,魏国树,侯茂林.未来气候变暖对褐飞虱越冬界限的影响分析[J].植物保护,2013,39(6):21-25. |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡朝兴 魏国树 侯茂林 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 河北农业大学植保学院，保定071001；2. 植物病虫害生物学国家重点实验室，中国农业科学院植物保护研究所，北京100193 |
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| 摘 要： | 全球气候变暖将对农业病虫害的越冬界限产生影响，从而影响病虫害的发生动态。本文以GIS（地理信息系统）技术研究了未来高经济发展条件下能源种类平衡发展排放情景（A1B）下褐飞虱越冬界限及相应越冬区相对于baseline时段（1961-1990）的可能变化。结果表明：（1）越冬北界在2020s（2010-2039）北移约50 km，安全越冬北界北移约110 km；2050s（2040-2069）越冬北界北移约120 km，安全越冬北界北移约250 km。由于经纬度及海拔的影响，越冬界限北移存在一定区域差异。（2）越冬区明显扩大。相对于baseline时段，2020s褐飞虱间歇越冬区扩大约11.93万km2 （约23.24%），安全越冬区增加约2.08万km2 或0.66倍；2050s间歇越冬区扩大约25.99万km2（约50.63%），安全越冬区增加约18.82万km2或5.93倍。这些结果表明褐飞虱越冬界限对气候变暖响应明显，其中安全越冬北界较越冬北界北移幅度更大。气候变暖导致的安全越冬北界北移对未来褐飞虱的发生动态可能产生重要影响。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变暖 褐飞虱 越冬北界 安全越冬北界 |
Influences of future climate warming on overwintering boundary of the brown planthopper |
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| Hu Chaoxing,Wei Guoshu,Hou Maolin.Influences of future climate warming on overwintering boundary of the brown planthopper[J].Plant Protection,2013,39(6):21-25. |
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| Authors: | Hu Chaoxing Wei Guoshu Hou Maolin |
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| Institution: | 1.?College of Plant Protection, Agricultural University of Hebei, Baoding071001, China; 2. State Key Laboratory for Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing100193, China |
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| Abstract: | Global climate change, characterized by climate warming, can affect overwintering boundary of agricultural insect pests. Based on GIS technology, the influences of climate warming on the overwintering boundary of the brown planthopper (BPH), Nilaparvata lugens, was analyzed for 2020s (2010-2039) and 2050s (2040-2069). The climate change scenario used was A1B and the average overwintering boundary from 1961 to 1990 was used as the baseline. The results showed that, in 2020s, the northern boundary of intermittent overwintering region will move northward by about 50 km and of safe overwintering region, by around 110 km. In 2050s, the two boundaries will shift northward by about 120 km and 250 km, respectively. The results also revealed regional difference in the northward shift of overwintering boundaries due to latitude, longitude and altitude. With the northward shift of overwintering boundaries, area of overwintering region will increase. In 2020s, area of intermittent overwintering region will expand by about 0.119 3 million km2 or 23.24%, and the area of safe overwintering region, by about 0.020 8 million km2 or 0.66 fold, as compared with those of the baseline period. In 2050s, the area of the two overwintering regions will increase by 0.259 9 million km2 or 50.63% and 0.188 2 million km2 or 5.93fold, respectively. The current results suggest that climate warming will enlarge the distribution of overwintering BPH, the northern boundary of safe overwintering region will shift northward more than that of intermittent overwintering region. |
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| Keywords: | climate change brown planthopper northern boundary of intermittent overwintering region northern boundary of safe overwintering region |
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