|
|||||
|
|
| 库尔勒香梨盛花期预报模型初探 | |
| 引用本文： | 张倩,李新建,吉春容,吴新国.库尔勒香梨盛花期预报模型初探[J].山西农业科学,2012,40(11):1211-1213,1225. |
| 作者姓名： | 张倩 李新建 吉春容 吴新国 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,新疆乌鲁木齐,830054 2. 新疆维吾尔自治区农业气象台,新疆乌鲁木齐,830002 3. 中国气象局沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐,830002 4. 库尔勒市气象局,新疆库尔勒,841000 |
| 基金项目： | 国家公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106025) |
| 摘 要： | 根据库尔勒市1981—2012年地面观测资料和香梨花期物候资料,分析库尔勒香梨盛花期与气象因子的相关性,采用逐步回归分析法确立对香梨盛花期作用显著的气象因素,建立香梨盛花期最优回归预测模型。结果表明,影响香梨盛花期的最优势相关气象因子是3月平均最高气温、4月至始花期平均气温与4月至始花期合计日照时数,利用所建模型对1981—2007年以及2008—2012年香梨盛花期进行回代和预报检验,效果均较好,此结果可用于指导库尔勒市香梨盛花期的预报。 |
| 关 键 词： | 库尔勒香梨 盛花期 预报模型 |
Preliminary Research on the Full Flowering Stage Prediction Model for Korla Pear |
|
| ZHANG Qian , LI Xin-jian , JI Chun-rong , WU Xin-guo.Preliminary Research on the Full Flowering Stage Prediction Model for Korla Pear[J].Journal of Shanxi Agricultural Sciences,2012,40(11):1211-1213,1225. | |
| Authors: | ZHANG Qian LI Xin-jian JI Chun-rong WU Xin-guo |
| Institution: | 1.College of Geography Science & Tourism,Xinjiang Normal University,Urumqi 830054,China;2.Agricultural Meteorological Station of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi 830002,China;3.Institute of Desert Meteorology,CMA,Urumqi 830002,China;4.Korla Meteorological Bureau,Kolra 841000,China) |
| Abstract: | Based on the meteorological data and the data of Korla pear phenology from 1981 to 2012 in the Korla Meteorological Bureau,analyzing the relationship between the Korla pear full flowering date and climatic factors,using the method of stepwise regression to determine the key influencing factors to Korla pear full flowering date,the optimal regression prediction model for full flowering date was established.The result showed that the key factors affecting the full flowering date of Korla pear were the maximum average temperature in March,the average temperature and the total sunshine hours of April to the beginning date of Korla pear flowering.With the established model,test predictions in history and in 2008 to 2012 were good. This result could be used to guide the forecast of the full flowering beginning date of Korla pear. |
| Keywords: | Korla Pear beginning date of full flowering period prediction model |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |