| 洱海水质的演变过程及趋势 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 郑国强,于兴修,江南,何隆华.洱海水质的演变过程及趋势[J].东北林业大学学报,2004,32(1):99-102. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 郑国强 于兴修 江南 何隆华 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 南京大学,南京,210093;中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 根据洱海近30年的水质监测资料和1996年洱海主要入湖河流水质监测资料，研究洱海水质时空演变的主要因素。结果表明：1971～1999年洱海水质呈不断恶化趋势，且恶化程度逐渐加强；水质月变化为8月份水质指数最高，5月份水质指数最低。造成这种变化的主要原因是降雨量的增加，形成的地表径流量增大，导致由河流带入湖区的非点源污染物增加；洱海西南部的入湖河流非点源污染严重，污染源主要来自工业废水和生活废水等。通过建立灰色GM(1，1)预测模型，对洱海2000～2010年水质演变趋势进行了预测，以期为今后的水污染防治提供依据。
|
| 关 键 词： | 洱海 水质演变 灰色预测 |
The Cause for Chang of Water Quality of Erhai Lake and Prediction of Water Quality |
| |
| Zheng Guoqiang.The Cause for Chang of Water Quality of Erhai Lake and Prediction of Water Quality[J].Journal of Northeast Forestry University,2004,32(1):99-102. |
| |
| Authors: | Zheng Guoqiang |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on the observation data of water quality for nearly 30 years and that for the main influent rivers of Erhai Lake in 1996, the main cause that led to the change of water quality of Erhai Lake was analyzed. The result indicated that the water quality of Erhai Lake showed a trend of deterioration from 1971 to 1999, and the degree of deterioration was getting more and more serious; the change of water quality monthly was that the water quality index (WQI) was the highest in August, the lowest in May. The main cause that led to the change of WQI was the increase of non-point source pollutant, which was carried by those rivers convergent at Erhai Lake due to the increase of ground runoff caused by the increase of rainfall. Non-point pollution is very severe in the southwest rivers of Erhai Lake, and the pollution source mainly comes from the wastewater both from industry and lives. A model on gray system was established. Based on this model, the changing trend of water quality of Erhai Lake from 2000 to 2001 was predicted, which provided a theoretical foundation for the pollution control of Erhai Lake. |
| |
| Keywords: | Erhai Lake Chang of water quality Gray prediction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
