| 基于响应面方法的马尾松毛虫发生量混沌特性检测及其预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈绘画,王坚娅,徐志宏.基于响应面方法的马尾松毛虫发生量混沌特性检测及其预测[J].东北林业大学学报,2011(9):94-96. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈绘画 王坚娅 徐志宏 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江省仙居县林业局;浙江农林大学 |
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| 摘 要： | 以非线性动力学为基础,通过响应面方法建立马尾松毛虫有虫面积序列密度依赖离散世代的非线性模型.结果表明:用响应面方法检测的马尾松毛虫有虫面积序列具有混沌特征,马尾松毛虫世代间有虫面积动态为2级相关,可以用前1代及前2代的有虫面积预测下1代的有虫面积,且预测准确性较高.
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| 关 键 词： | 马尾松毛虫 发生量 响应面方法 混沌 非线性动力学 |
Application of Response-Surface Methodology to Chaos Detection and Forecast of Occurrence Quantity of Dendrolimus punctatus |
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| Chen Huihua,Wang JianyaForestry Bureau of Xianju County,Xianju,P.R.China;Xu Zhihong.Application of Response-Surface Methodology to Chaos Detection and Forecast of Occurrence Quantity of Dendrolimus punctatus[J].Journal of Northeast Forestry University,2011(9):94-96. |
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| Authors: | Chen Huihua Wang JianyaForestry Bureau of Xianju County Xianju PRChina;Xu Zhihong |
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| Institution: | Chen Huihua,Wang Jianya(Forestry Bureau of Xianju County,Xianju 317300,P.R.China);Xu Zhihong(Zhejiang Agriculture & Forestry University) |
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| Abstract: | Based on nonlinear dynamics,a density-dependence discrete-time nonlinear dynamic model of occurrence area series for Dendrolimus punctatus was established using Response Surface Method(RSM).Results show that,the occurrence area series for D.punctatus tested by RSM has chaos characteristics.The dynamics of occurrence area between different generations exhibited the relationships between two generations.The forecast of the occurrence area of next generation could be accomplished with the data of last generation and the generation before last,and the method has a relatively high accuracy. |
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| Keywords: | Dendrolimus punctatus Occurrence quantity Response surface method Chaos Non-linear dynamic models |
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