| 政府政策对吉林省玉米价格波动影响实证分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 费红梅,刘文明,范海涛,姜会明,姚丽影.政府政策对吉林省玉米价格波动影响实证分析[J].玉米科学,2018,26(6):170-174. |
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| 作者姓名： | 费红梅 刘文明 范海涛 姜会明 姚丽影 |
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| 作者单位： | 吉林农业大学经济管理学院 长春 130118;长春科技学院财经管理学院, 长春 130600,吉林省农业科学院 长春 130033,吉林农业大学经济管理学院 长春 130118,吉林农业大学经济管理学院 长春 130118,吉林省农业科学院 长春 130033 |
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| 基金项目： | 吉林省社科基金项目（2017A13） |
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| 摘 要： | 本文基于吉林省1982～2016年的相关数据，重点关注政府政策并引入控制变量建立线性回归模型和VAR模型，对政府政策和相关变量对玉米价格波动的影响进行实证分析。分析认为，政府政策这一变量对玉米价格波动具有最为显著的冲击作用，短期内呈周期性剧烈波动冲击，长期影响趋缓；其他如需求因素、替代品价格因素、收入因素等也在一定程度上对玉米价格波动产生显著性影响。
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| 关 键 词： | 玉米 政府政策 价格波动 吉林省 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/1/28 0:00:00 |
An Empirical Analysis of the Influence of Government Policy on the Fluctuation of Jilin Corn Price |
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| FEI Hong-mei,LIU Wen-ming,FAN Hai-tao,JIANG Hui-ming and YAO Li-ying.An Empirical Analysis of the Influence of Government Policy on the Fluctuation of Jilin Corn Price[J].Journal of Maize Sciences,2018,26(6):170-174. |
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| Authors: | FEI Hong-mei LIU Wen-ming FAN Hai-tao JIANG Hui-ming and YAO Li-ying |
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| Institution: | College of Economics and Management, Jilin Agricultural University, Changchun 130118;College of Finance and Management, Changchun Sci-Tech University, Changchun 130600,Jilin Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Changchun 130033, China,College of Economics and Management, Jilin Agricultural University, Changchun 130118,College of Economics and Management, Jilin Agricultural University, Changchun 130118 and Jilin Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Changchun 130033, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the data from 1982 to 2016 in Jilin province, China, this paper focused on the government policies, introduced control variables, established linear regression models and VAR models, and empirically analyzed the impact of government policies and related variables on maize price volatility. The analysis showed that the variable of government policy had the most significant impact on the price fluctuation of corn, and in the short term, it had a cyclical violent fluctuation, and the long-term effect is slowing down. Other factors such as demand factors, alternative price factors and income factors also had a significant impact on the fluctuation of corn prices to a certain extent. |
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| Keywords: | Corn Government policy Price fluctuation Jilin province |
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