| 铜仁市2012年一次秋季大暴雨天气过程成因分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈军,钟有萍,周长志,易丁.铜仁市2012年一次秋季大暴雨天气过程成因分析[J].安徽农业科学,2013(23):9691-9695. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈军 钟有萍 周长志 易丁 |
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| 作者单位： | 贵州省铜仁市气象局,贵州铜仁,554300;贵州省气象局,贵州贵阳,550002 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用常规观测资料、地面加密自动站资料、NCEP1°×1°的格点再分析资料对2012年10月21 ～ 22日铜仁市出现的大暴雨天气过程的主要影响系统、各物理量场的特征进行了分析,对WRF模式的降水预报进行检验.结果表明,造成这次大暴雨天气的主要影响系统是500 hPa低槽、700 hPa切变、850 hPa低涡切变以及地面冷锋、地面辐合线;暴雨的形成、加强、减弱与暴雨上空水汽通量辐合区的演变关系密切,暴雨发生前中低层有较强的西南或偏南暖湿气流向暴雨区输送水汽;暴雨区有强烈上升运动速度,上升运动从850 hPa一直延伸至150 hPa附近,最大上升气流位于700 hPa附近,低层辐合、高层辐散的垂直动力场结构,使整层产生了有组织的上升运动,为大暴雨的发生提供了动力条件;上、下层负、正垂直螺旋度耦合的结构对暴雨的发生和维持是十分有利的;对流层低层θse随高度减小,850hPa铜仁位于θse高值区,在贵州东部和南部有一个θse大值（高能）中心（θse≥68℃）,反映了暴雨期间低层大气的不稳定性,而中层大气处于中性,这种大气层结有利于产生对流性强降水;WRF模式的降水预报对于此次强降水过程具有重要的指示意义,近24h的降水落区与实况相比吻合较好,但降水量级预报略偏小.
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| 关 键 词： | 大暴雨 成因分析 秋季 铜仁市 |
Cause Analysis of a Heavy Rainstorm Process in Tongren City in Autumn, 2012 |
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| Institution: | CHEN Jun et al (Tongren Meteorological Administration, Tongren, Guizhou 554300) |
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| Abstract: | By using conventional observation data, ground encryption automatic stations, NCEP1°× 1° grid points reanalysis data, main influencing system and characteristics of physical quantity field of the heavy storm in Tongren City during October 21 - 22, 2012 were ana- lyzed. The precipitation forecasting was tested based on WRF model. The results showed that ： the main cause of the heavy rain are the system 500 hPa low slot, 700 hPa shear, 850 hPa vortex shear and surface cold front; the rainstorm formation, strengthen and weaken are closely re- lated to the evolution of the heavy rain over the water vapor flux convergence zone. Low-level convergence, high-level divergence the vertical dynamic field structure, so that the entire layer organized upward motion, provided the impetus for the occurrence of heavy rain conditions ; the lower troposphere Ose with reduced height, reflecting the lower atmosphere during the storm not stability, and the middle atmosphere in the neutral atmospheric stratification is conducive to produce strong convective precipitation; WRF mode precipitation forecast for the heavy precip- itation has important significance, compared to nearly 24 hours of the precipitation area and the fact consistent better, but the precipitation lev- el forecast is slightly smaller, heavy precipitation forecast period, compared w~th the fact of earlier six hours, which needs to integrate the de- velopment of the situation of other numerical forecasts revised forecasts. |
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| Keywords: | Heavy rainstorm Cause analysis Autumn Tongren City |
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