| 广东中山市20年恶性肿瘤死亡率时间序列分析与预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴进军,苏汝好.广东中山市20年恶性肿瘤死亡率时间序列分析与预测[J].湛江医学院学报,2001,19(3):235-236,238. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴进军 苏汝好 |
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| 作者单位： | 广东医学院医院管理研究室!广东湛江524001 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的：研究中山市恶性肿瘤死亡率的流行学特点。为制定防治计划提供依据。方法：以中山市恶性肿瘤死亡率调查资料为样本。应用SAS统计分析软件对恶性肿瘤死亡率进行时问序列分析与预测。结果：1970～1989年男性恶性肿瘤死亡率和男女合计恶性肿瘤死亡率均呈现上升趋势且有继续保持的趋势。到2000年将分别上升为121．05／10万和83．92／10万左右；女性恶性肿瘤死亡率呈现无趋势的随机波动且将继续保持下去，到2000年保持在43．59／10万左右。结论：中山市男女恶性肿瘤死亡率呈不同变化趋势。男性恶性肿瘤死亡率呈现上升的趋势。女性恶性肿瘤死亡率呈现无趋势的随机波动。恶性肿瘤死亡率的上升对人群的健康构成重大威胁。
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| 关 键 词： | 恶性肿瘤 死亡率 时间序列分析 |
| 文章编号： | 1005-4057(2001)-03-0235-03 |
Analysis and forecast of mortality of malignant tumor by time series in Zhongshan City |
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| WU Jin-jun,SU Ru-hao.Analysis and forecast of mortality of malignant tumor by time series in Zhongshan City[J].Journal of Guangdong Medical College,2001,19(3):235-236,238. |
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| Authors: | WU Jin-jun SU Ru-hao |
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| Abstract: | Objective:To study the epidemiologic characteristic of mortality of malignant tumors in Zhongshan City Method:Selecting the investigated datum of mortality of malignant tumor in Zhongshan City as sample uses SAS statistics software to analyse and forecast the mortality by time series Results:Morlality of male malignant tumor and both male and female malignant tumour showed the risen trend from 1970 to 1989 The trend will be kept in future Both will be separately risen to 121 05/10 5 and 83 92/10 5 in 2 000 Mortality of female malignant tumour will be kept in about 43 59/10 5 in 2000 Couclusion:Mortality of both male and female malignant tumor takes on the trend of diffirent change The male showed risen trend;the female showed the fluctuation of non-trend random Rising mortality of malignant tumor greatly threaden the crowd health |
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| Keywords: | malignant tumor mortality time series analysis |
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