| 不同水文序列突变检测方法在漳河观台站径流分析中的对比研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 鲍振鑫,张建云,王国庆,刘翠善,严小林,刘晶,刘悦.不同水文序列突变检测方法在漳河观台站径流分析中的对比研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2020(5):47-52. |
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| 作者姓名： | 鲍振鑫 张建云 王国庆 刘翠善 严小林 刘晶 刘悦 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室;水利部应对气候变化研究中心;河海大学 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划课题项目(2017YFA0605002,2017YFA0605004,2016YFA0601501);国家自然科学基金项目(41961124007,51779145,41830863,51879162);江苏省“六大人才高峰”资助项目(RJFW-031)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 科学诊断水文序列的突变特性,对于认识水文循环的演变规律,研究环境变化对水文过程的影响具有重要的科学意义。基于漳河观台水文站1951-2015年实测径流序列,利用降水-径流双累积曲线、有序聚类突变检测法、Mann-Kendall突变检测法、基于水文模拟的突变检测法等多种方法对比分析了其突变特征。结果表明:1951年以来,观台水文站实测年径流序列呈现出显著的下降趋势,20世纪50和60年代处于丰水期,从70年代初开始年径流持续下降,80年代以后进入连续枯水期。4种突变检测方法得到观台水文站实测年径流序列的突变点位于1971-1978年。4种方法相比,降水-径流双累积曲线检测的突变点反映的是流域降水-径流关系发生明显改变的时刻;有序聚类突变检测方法检测的突变点反映的是径流序列的聚类特征;Mann-Kendall突变检测方法检测的突变点反映的是径流序列的综合突变特征;基于水文模拟的突变检测方法检测的突变点反映的是人类活动对流域降水径流关系干扰的起始点。
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| 关 键 词： | 突变点 水文序列 检测方法 对比分析 |
Comparison of the Breakpoint of Hydrological Series Detected by Multiple Methodologies at the Guantai Hydrologic Station in the Zhang River |
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| BAO Zhen-xin,ZHANG Jian-yun,WANG Guo-qing,LIU Cui-shan,YAN Xiao-lin,LIU Jing,LIU Yue.Comparison of the Breakpoint of Hydrological Series Detected by Multiple Methodologies at the Guantai Hydrologic Station in the Zhang River[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2020(5):47-52. |
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| Authors: | BAO Zhen-xin ZHANG Jian-yun WANG Guo-qing LIU Cui-shan YAN Xiao-lin LIU Jing LIU Yue |
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| Institution: | (State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;Research Center for Climate Change of MWR,Nanjing 210029,China;Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China) |
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| Abstract: | It is of great scientific significance to detect the breakpoint of hydrological series for understanding the trend of hydrological cycle and studying the impact of environmental changes on hydrological processes.By using the observed data from 1951 to 2015 at the Guantai hydrologic station of the Zhang River,the breakpoint of annual stream flow is detected by multiple methods including double-accumulation curve of precipitation and runoff methodology,orderly clustering breakpoint detection methodology,Mann-Kendall's test methodology and breakpoint detection methodology based on hydrological simulation.The results indicate that since 1951,there is a statistically significant decreasing trend in annual stream flow.In the 1950s and 1960s,the annual stream flow is higher,and it begins to decrease from the early 1970s,then after 1980s it is long period of dry.The breakpoint of annual stream flow happens from 1971 to 1978 is detected by different methodologies.Compared with the four methodologies,the breakpoint detected by the double-accumulation curve of precipitation and runoff reflects the moment when the relationship between precipitation and runoff changes significantly.The breakpoint detected by the orderly clustering breakpoint detection methodology reflects the clustering characteristics of stream flow series.The breakpoint detected by the MannKendall's test methodology reflects the comprehensive abrupt changing characteristics of stream flow series. The breakpoint detected by the methodology based on hydrological simulation reflects the starting point of the impact of human activities on the relationship between precipitation and stream flow. |
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| Keywords: | breakpoint hydrological series test methodology comparison |
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