| 基于Copula函数的开都河年径流预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 魏光辉.基于Copula函数的开都河年径流预测[J].国际沙棘研究与开发,2016(7). |
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| 作者姓名： | 魏光辉 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆塔里木河流域管理局,新疆 库尔勒,841000 |
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| 摘 要： | 河川径流量的准确预测对于水库调度、区域水资源优化配置具有重要意义.本文以新疆开都河为例,运用Copula函数将自变量和因变量的相关程度和相关模式有机结合,构建两变量联合分布函数,研究两变量与联合分布之间的相依结构;在此基础上,根据样本值未知的因变量边缘分布与联合分布关系,结合样本值己知的自变量概率分布,对因变量未知值进行预测.结果表明:基于Copula函数的预测方法原理明晰、计算简便、性能稳定、预测精度较高.
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| 关 键 词： | 年径流 预测 Copula函数 联合分布 开都河 |
Prediction of Kaidu River annual runoff based on Copulas function |
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| Abstract: | Accurate prediction of river runoff has important significance for reservoir scheduling and optimal allocation of regional water resources.In the paper, Kaidu River in Xinjiang is adopted as an example.Copulas function is utilized for organically combining relevance of the independent variable and dependent variable with related mode.Joint distribution function of two variables is constructed.Dependence structure between two variables and joint distribution is studied.On the basis, known independent variable probability distribution is combined for predicting unknown value of the dependent variable on the basis according to unknown dependent variable marginal distribution and joint distribution relationship of the sample value.The result shows that the prediction method based on copulas function has clear principle, simple calculation, stable performance and higher prediction accuracy. |
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| Keywords: | annual runoff prediction Copulas functions joint distribution Kaidu River |
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