| 安徽省21世纪气候变化预估 |
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| 引用本文： | 温华洋,田红,卢燕宇.安徽省21世纪气候变化预估[J].安徽农业科学,2010,38(13):6771-6774,6777. |
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| 作者姓名： | 温华洋 田红 卢燕宇 |
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| 作者单位： | 安徽省气候中心,安徽合肥,230031;安徽省气候中心,安徽合肥,230031;安徽省气候中心,安徽合肥,230031 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局气候变化专项项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 首先对国家气候中心下发的IPCC-AR4中全球气候模式数据进行了效果检验,检验结果表明该模式对安徽省气温的预估具有很好的可信度,对降水预估则还存在较大的不确定性。在此基础上分析了在温室气体中等排放情景A1B下安徽省21世纪的气候变化。结果表明,21世纪安徽省将显著的变暖、变湿。年平均气温上升速度约为每10年0.38℃,冬季上升最快,夏季略慢。空间上增温幅度从东南向西北逐渐增大。降水量则以每10年1.1%的速度增加,在世纪初年际波动较大,21世纪40年代到世纪末有显著增加趋势,冬季降水量增加较多,而秋季降水量偏少,汛期降水量有所增加,但占年降水量的比例变化不大。空间上北部降水比南部增加更为明显。气温和降水的变化对气温年较差、强降水和旱涝格局等极端事件也将产生较大的影响。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 预估 SERSA1B 气温 降水 极端事件 安徽 |
Projection of Climate Change in Anhui Province during the 21 st Century |
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| Institution: | WEN Hua-yang et al (Anhui Provincial Climate Centre,Hefei,Anhui 230031) |
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| Abstract: | A new monthly climate data set was distributed by National Climate Center,which was interpolated and summarized from different output data sets of Global Circulation Models in IPCC-AR4. Validation analysis indicated that this data set is well consistent with the observation of temperature in Anhui Province while the estimate of precipitation has large uncertainties. Based on the data set,we evaluated the climate changes in Anhui Province under SRES A1B scenario during the 21st century. Results indicated that this region will experience a warmer and wetter climate in the 21st century. Annual mean air temperature will increase at the rate of 0.38℃per 10 years. Most intense warming trend is projected to occur in winter while the slowest in summer. Spatial pattern showed that the warming trend increase along the southeast to northwest. During the 21st century,annual precipitation increase with the rate of 1.1% per 10 years. Large interannual variability of precipitation is predicted in the early of the 21st century. Seasonal pattern indicated that a higher increase will occur in winter while the autumn precipitation will decrease. Flood season will get more precipitation but the proportion of its to the annual precipitation will not change significantly. The increase rate of precipitation in the north is higher than the south. In general,the future change of the air temperature and precipitation will significantly impact the difference of annual temperature,the distribution of drought and flood,and the probability of extreme climate events like extreme precipitation. |
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| Keywords: | SERSA1B |
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