| 基于主成分分析的玉米棉铃虫预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭小芹,刘明春,魏育国.基于主成分分析的玉米棉铃虫预测模型[J].西北农业学报,2010,19(8):69-73. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭小芹 刘明春 魏育国 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象局,兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,兰州,730020;甘肃省武威市气象局,甘肃武威,733000
2. 甘肃省武威市气象局,甘肃武威,733000 |
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| 基金项目： | 公益性行业(气象)科研专项"西北地区旱作农业对气候变暖的响应特征及其预警和应对技术研究" |
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| 摘 要： | 棉铃虫是河西走廊东部玉米主要害虫之一,气象因素对其种群消长具有非常重要的影响。利用1999-2008年棉铃虫发生资料与同期气象资料,通过对棉铃虫危害程度和其种群消长动态的分析,采用主成分方法对棉铃虫发生动态进行模拟,建立了棉铃虫危害特征预测模型。检验结果表明:预测模型准确率78%~89%,订正模型准确率提高10%以上。模型预测时效超前、效果好,且具有动态特征,可用于研究区域棉铃虫发生程度的监测、预警与研究。
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| 关 键 词： | 棉铃虫 预测模型 主成分分析 |
Forecast Model of Helicoverpa armigera Based on Principal Component Analysis |
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| GUO Xiaoqin,LIU Mingchun and WEI Yuguo.Forecast Model of Helicoverpa armigera Based on Principal Component Analysis[J].Acta Agriculturae Boreali-occidentalis Sinica,2010,19(8):69-73. |
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| Authors: | GUO Xiaoqin LIU Mingchun and WEI Yuguo |
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| Institution: | GUO Xiaoqin1,2,LIU Mingchun2 and WEI Yuguo2(1.Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province,Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA,Lanzhou 730020,China,2.Wuwei Meteorological Bureau,Wuwei Gansu 733000,China) |
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| Abstract: | Helicoverpa armigera is one of the main pests in spring maize grown in eastern Hexi Corridor,meteorological factors have very important implications with its population dynamics.Using observational data of Helicoverpa armigera and meteorological factors from 1999 to 2008,this paper adopted principal component analysis method to simulate population dynamics of Helicoverpa armigera and established the prediction models.The results show that model accuracy is 78%-89%,the revised prediction model increased the ... |
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| Keywords: | Helicoverpa armigera Prediction model Principal component analysis |
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