| 基于Mein-Larson入渗模型的降雨滑坡失稳破坏概率研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李秀珍,张小红.基于Mein-Larson入渗模型的降雨滑坡失稳破坏概率研究[J].水土保持通报,2017,37(1):219-223. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李秀珍 张小红 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院 山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室,四川 成都 610041;中国科学院 成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川 成都 610041;2. 重庆川东南地质工程勘察设计院,重庆,400038 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院重点部署项目子课题“泥石流动力过程及调控模拟”（KZZD-EW-05-01-02）；国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）（2015CB452704，2013CB733205） |
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| 摘 要： | 目的]评价降雨诱发浅层滑坡的失稳破坏概率,为相关研究提供理论依据。方法]在引入并扩展了Mein-Larson降雨入渗模型的基础上,将Mein-Larson入渗模型与无限边坡稳定性方法有机结合,建立2种降雨情形(高强度短历时和低强度长历时)下降雨滑坡稳定性的确定性评价模型,然后再将蒙特卡洛数值模拟方法与降雨滑坡的确定性评价模型结合,建立降雨滑坡稳定性的概率评价方法。结果]提出了1种降雨诱发浅层滑坡失稳的概率评价方法。结论]概率评价方法可以描述降雨滑坡发生及发展过程中存在的不确定性,可以计算不同降雨情形下,不同降雨时刻降雨诱发边坡的失稳破坏概率。该方法的评价结果更符合边坡实际情况。
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| 关 键 词： | Mein-Larson入渗模型 降雨滑坡 无限边坡稳定性分析方法 失稳破坏概率 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016/4/27 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2016/6/12 0:00:00 |
A Study of Instability Probability of Rainfall-Induced Landslides Based on Mein-Larson Infiltration Model |
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| LI Xiuzhen and ZHANG Xiaohong.A Study of Instability Probability of Rainfall-Induced Landslides Based on Mein-Larson Infiltration Model[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,37(1):219-223. |
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| Authors: | LI Xiuzhen and ZHANG Xiaohong |
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| Institution: | Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Processes, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China;Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China and Chongqing Geological Engineering Investigation and Design Institute of Southeast Sichuan, Chongqing 400038, China |
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| Abstract: | Objective] The objective of the study is to evaluate the instability probability of shallow landslide induced by rainfall, and to provide theoretical basis for related research. Methods] We combine Mein-Larson model with infinite slope stability models of saturated soil by introducing and developing the Mein-Larson infiltration model, and establish deterministic models for rain-induced landslides under short duration rainfall with high intensity and long duration rainfall with low intensity. Then we establish a probability analysis method of the slope instability by combining the deterministic models with Monte Carlo method. Results] One kind of evaluation method for the failure probability of shallow landslide induced by rainfall was proposed.Conclusion] The probability method not only can describe the uncertainties in the process of occurrence and development of rain-induced landslides, but also can calculate the instability probability of rain-induced slope instability under the different rainfall time. The assessment results are in high agreement with the actual slope. |
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| Keywords: | Mein-Larson infiltration model rainfall-induced landslides infinite slope stability analysis method instability probability |
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