| 模糊可靠性理论在河流水质风险评 |
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| 引用本文： | 李如忠,洪天求.模糊可靠性理论在河流水质风险评[J].中国农村水利水电,2005,0(11):21-23. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李如忠 洪天求 |
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| 作者单位： | 合肥工业大学资源与环境工程学院,合肥,230009 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家基础研究重大项目前期研究专项(2003CCC00400),安徽省自然科学基金资助项目(050450303) |
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| 摘 要： | 由于影响污染物浓度的诸多因素,如污染物性质、水温、水力条件等的不确定性和随机性,使得河流水质安全的极限状态并非如通常的“临界点”所定义的那么明确。根据这一认识,运用模糊数学原理,将水质安全的极限状态定义为在“零”附近的一个不确定区间,即“模糊临界区间”。并在给定河流水质模糊可靠度概念的基础上,建立度量水质风险的模糊失效概率模型,给出表征水质安全的模糊可靠度计算模式。实例研究表明,所建模型对水质风险问题研究具有很好的适用性。
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| 关 键 词： | 河流水质 模糊临界区间 模糊失效概率模型 模糊可靠性 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-2284(2005)11-0021-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年1月14日 |
Application of Fuzzy Reliability Theory in Risk Analysis of River Water Quality |
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| LI Ru-zhong,HONG Tian-qiu.Application of Fuzzy Reliability Theory in Risk Analysis of River Water Quality[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2005,0(11):21-23. |
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| Authors: | LI Ru-zhong HONG Tian-qiu |
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| Abstract: | The limit state for water quality security isn't so absolutely definite "critical point" as defined since many factors,such as contaminant characteristics,water temperature,water hydraulic conditions and so on,are uncertain and stochastic.Based on this understanding,the limit state for water quality security is described as an uncertain interval adjacent to "zero" using fuzzy mathematics theory.The uncertain interval is so called fuzzy limit interval.On the basis of providing the concept of fuzzy reliability of river water quality,the fuzzy failure probability model for measuring the risk of river water quality is established,and the procedure for calculation of the fuzzy reliability of water quality safety is also provided.As an example,the models provided are used to evaluate the risk of a certain river.Study results show that the models established are suitable for risk analysis of river water quality. |
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| Keywords: | river water quality fuzzy limit interval fuzzy failure probability model fuzzy reliability |
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