| 基于权马尔可夫链的干旱概率预报模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 席占生,李磊,张晓民,朱永楠,梁忠民.基于权马尔可夫链的干旱概率预报模型研究[J].安徽农业科学,2013(7):2936-2937,2957. |
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| 作者姓名： | 席占生 李磊 张晓民 朱永楠 梁忠民 |
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| 作者单位： | 国核电力规划设计研究院,北京,100095;华北电力设计院工程有限公司,北京,100120;河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京,210098 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对干旱预测的长期性,建立了一种基于权马尔可夫链的降雨量概率预报模型,并将该模型应用于徐州地区月尺度的干旱预报。结果表明,该模型可预测区域未来发生干旱的可能性,为抗旱管理提供决策依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 干旱预报 权马尔可夫链 概率预报 干旱管理 |
Drought Probability Precipitation Model Based on Markov Chain with Weight |
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| Institution: | XI Zhan-sheng et al(State Nuclear Electric Power Planning Design & Research Institute,Beijing 100095) |
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| Abstract: | In view of the long-term characteristic of drought prediction,a drought probability precipitation model based on the Markov chain with weight was established,then the model was applied in the drought precipitation in monthly scale in Xuzhou area.The results of application showed that the model can predict the possibility of future regional drought,and can offer the decision-making basis for drought management. |
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| Keywords: | Drought precipitation Markov chain with weight Probability precipitation Drought management |
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