Probabilistic model for estimating field mortality of target and non-target bird populations when simultaneously exposed to avicide bait |
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| Authors: | Johnston John J Holmes Melvin J Hart Andy Kohler Dennis J Stahl Randal S |
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| Institution: | USDA/APHIS/Wildlife Services, National Wildlife Research Center, 4101 LaPorte Avenue, Fort Collins, CO 80521, USA. john.j.johnston@aphis.usda.gov |
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| Abstract: | A probabilistic model was developed to estimate target and non-target avian mortality associated with the application of the avicide CPTH (3-chloro-p-toluidine hydrochloride) to minimize sprouting rice damage in the southern USA. CPTH exposures for individual birds were predicted by random sampling from species-specific non-parametric distributions of bait seed consumption and CPTH residues detected on individual bait seeds. Mortality was predicted from the species-specific exposure versus mortality relationship. Individual variations in this response were captured in the model by Monte Carlo sampling from species-specific distributions of slopes and median toxicity values (LD50) for each bird. The model was used to simultaneously predict mortality (percentage of exposed population and number of birds killed/weight of consumed bait) for a target (blackbird) and non-target (mourning dove) species feeding on bait sites for up to five consecutive days. |
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| Keywords: | probabilistic risk assessment model CPTH DRC‐1339 3‐chloro‐4‐methylaniline blackbird toxicity |
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