Evaluation of stock management procedures for walleye pollock in northern waters of the Sea of Japan using a simulation |
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| Authors: | Hiroshi Yamaguchi Takashi Matsuishi |
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| Institution: | (1) Hokkaido Central Fisheries Experiment Station, Yoichi, 046-8555 Hokkaido, Japan;(2) Faculty of Fisheries Sciences, Hokkaido University, 041-8611 Hakodate, Hakkaido, Japan |
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| Abstract: | To evaluate walleye pollock stock management procedures in the northern waters of the Sea of Japan, 30-year population dynamics,
including uncertainties, were forecast. Errors in current stock size estimation, variability in future recruitment and changes
in future fishing mortalities were incorporated. Results of virtual population analysis (VPA) from resampled catch-at-age
data with bootstrap methods was used as the current stock size estimation with uncertainty. Performances of each scenario
were evaluated using conservation, utilization, stability and reliability factors. Twenty-two management scenarios and continuing
the current fishing mortality were evaluated. Scenarios with minor regulation changes and continuing the current fishing mortality
showed poor stock conservation performances. Scenarios with minor regulation changes produced good short-term but poor long-term
utilization. Stabilities were poor in continuing the current fishing mortality and fishing ban scenarios. Reliability in all
scenarios after 30 years was smaller than in continuing the current fishing mortality; however, small differences among scenarios
were observed. The simulation results indicated that multilateral assessment is needed to evaluate the management candidates.
Uncertainty caused by recruitment variability mostly affected future population dynamics. The role of simulations in the production
of effective scientific advice is discussed. |
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| Keywords: | management procedure simulation uncertainty walleye pollock |
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