| 东北地区持续低温指数的温度敏感性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王艳华,任传友,刘刚,周立宏,韩亚东,张文忠.东北地区持续低温指数的温度敏感性分析[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(5):519-525. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王艳华 任传友 刘刚 周立宏 韩亚东 张文忠 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 沈阳农业大学农学院大气科学系,沈阳,110866
2. 黑龙江省鹤岗市气象局,鹤岗,154100 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用东北地区73个气象台站1961-2005年日最低温度和平均温度观测资料,分析持续低温指数（Consecutive Cold Day Index,CCDI）对温度变化的响应规律,探讨其对农业生产的可能影响.结果表明,研究期内东北地区年、季平均温度均呈上升趋势（P＜0.01）,其中冬季增温幅度最大,夏季最小,2001-2005年夏、秋、冬季平均温度有所下降、年际变率增大；研究期内年、季CCDI值均呈减少的趋势,年际变率增大,不同季节CCDI降幅及年际变率差异明显,2001-2005年的年、季CCDI较1991-2000年有所升高；研究期内年、季CCDI的温度敏感系数皆为正值,说明年、季CCDI值随相应的年、季平均温度升高而下降；CCDI的温度敏感系数及CCDI与平均温度的相关系数均呈阶段性减小的趋势,但90年代中期以来又有所增加.虽然东北地区年平均温度升高、CCDI下降,但由于存在季节间差异,夏季热量条件并未得到很大改善,加之温度波动加剧、更晚熟作物品种的大量播种,致使低温冷害频繁发生,因此在东北地区栽种晚熟作物品种仍需谨慎.
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| 关 键 词： | 东北地区 低温冷害 持续低温指数（CCDI） 温度敏感系数 |
Analysis on Sensitivity of Consecutive Cold Day Index to Temperature in Northeast China |
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| WANG Yan-hua
,
REN Chuan-you
,
LIU Gang
,
ZHOU Li-hong
,
HAN Ya-dong
,
ZHANG Wen-zhong.Analysis on Sensitivity of Consecutive Cold Day Index to Temperature in Northeast China[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2013,34(5):519-525. |
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| Authors: | WANG Yan-hua REN Chuan-you LIU Gang ZHOU Li-hong HAN Ya-dong ZHANG Wen-zhong |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College of Agronomy, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110866, China ;2 Hegang Municipal Meteorological Bureau, Heilongjiang, Hegang 154100) |
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| Abstract: | Based on daily mean and minimum temperature of 73 meteorological stations in Northeast China -2005, authors analyzed the annual and seasonal responses of consecutive cold day change, and discussed its probable effects on agricultural production in this paper. The index （CCDI） to results showed tha during 1961 temperature t the annual and seasonal mean temperature had a increasing trend in recent 45 years with the largest rise in winter and the smallest rise in summer, in contrast to a small decrease in seasonal mean temperature and slight increase in interannual variability for summer,autumn and winter from 2001 to 2005. Annual CCDI and seasonal CCDI decreased and their interannual variations increased as a whole, characterized by obvious differences among four seasons during 1961 - 2005,the annual and seasonal CCDIs from 2001 to 2005 were bigger than that from 1991 to 2000. Temperature sensitivity coefficients of the two CCDI indices were positive, which indicated that they decreased with accordingly mean temperature rise. Sensitivities of the annual and seasonal CCDI and correlations between CCDI and mean temperature decreased from early 1960s to middle 1990s, and then increased. Although the annual mean temperature went up and CCDIs tended to decrease during recent 45 years, the occurrence of low temperature damage to crop tended to frequent due to the smallest CCDI change rates, smallest temperature sensitivity coefficient, largest interannual variation in summer and planting of later maturity variety crops blindly, precaution should be taken in application of later maturity variety crops in Northeast China. |
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| Keywords: | Northeast China Chilling damage Consecutive cold day index (CCDI) Temperature sensitivity coefficient |
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