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| 河南夏玉米产量灾损的风险区划 | |
| 引用本文： | 刘小雪,申双和,刘荣花.河南夏玉米产量灾损的风险区划[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(5):582-587. |
| 作者姓名： | 刘小雪 申双和 刘荣花 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 南京信息工程大学江苏省农业气象重点实验室/南京信息工程大学应用气象学院,南京210044;中国气象局河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室,郑州450003 2. 南京信息工程大学江苏省农业气象重点实验室/南京信息工程大学应用气象学院,南京,210044 3. 中国气象局河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室,郑州450003;河南省气象科学研究所,郑州450003 |
| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划，公益性行业(气象)科研专项 |
| 摘 要： | 利用河南省96个县1971-2010年的夏玉米实际产量资料,从产量灾损率角度,分析该区夏玉米灾损风险评估指标的分布规律,包括历年平均减产率、减产率变异系数、不同减产率风险概率和灾损减产风险指数,构建夏玉米产量灾损风险评估模型,对河南省夏玉米产量灾损进行风险区划.结果表明,各灾损风险评估指标在河南省夏玉米区分布具有明显的地域性和连片性,根据综合风险指数将河南省夏玉米区划分为高、中、低3类风险区,低风险区分布在豫北、豫东、豫中的华北平原地区和南阳盆地；中风险区分布在豫西北部丘陵地区和豫南雨养夏玉米区；高风险区包括新蔡、上蔡、平舆、沈丘和渑池等县区,此区夏玉米减产综合风险最高,抗灾性较弱.研究结果可对指导河南夏玉米生产趋利避害和防灾减灾提供参考依据. |
| 关 键 词： | 夏玉米 灾损 风险评估 区划 |
Risk Regionalization of Yield Losses of Summer Maize in Henan Province |
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| LIU Xiao-xue , SHEN Shuang-he , LIU Rong-hua.Risk Regionalization of Yield Losses of Summer Maize in Henan Province[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2013,34(5):582-587. | |
| Authors: | LIU Xiao-xue SHEN Shuang-he LIU Rong-hua |
| Institution: | 1. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology/College of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;2. Henan Key Laboratory of Agro-meteorological Support and Applied Technique, CMA, Zhengzhou 450003 ;3. Henan Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Zhengzhou 450003 ) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, the actual yields data of summer maize of 96 counties in Henan province from 1971 to 2010 were used to analyze the risk of yield loss of summer maize. The risk assessment indices included the mean yield reduction rate, variance coefficient of yield reduction rate, risk probability and risk index of yield-reduction of summer maize, and a comprehensive risk assessment indicator was established based on these indices. The risk regionalization of yield loss of summer maize in Henan province was completed. The results showed that the geographic distribution of these risk indicators value had evident regional and continuous characteristics. According to the comprehensive risk index, summer maize planting region in Henan province was divided into three risk categories of high, medium and low. The low risk area including the plain areas of northern and eastern Henan, middle parts of Henan and Nanyang basin; the medium risk area including western hilly area and southern rain-fed summer maize area, and the high risk area including Xincai, Shangcai, Pingyu, Shenqiu and Mianchi counties which had the highest yield-reduction risk and weaker anti-disaster ability. The results of this research could provide a reference for summer maize production and disaster prevention and mitigation in Henan province. |
| Keywords: | Summer maize Yield reduction Risk assessment Regionalization |
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