| 气候变化对我国农业的可能影响及对策 |
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| 引用本文： | 陶战,蔡罗保.气候变化对我国农业的可能影响及对策[J].农业环境与发展,1994,11(3):1-6. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陶战 蔡罗保 |
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| 作者单位： | 农业部环境保护科研监测所 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文根据ＩＰＣＣ对全球未来气候变化的预测，结合我国地理─—气候分布和近百年不同区域气候变化趋势，将我国陆地分成九个区域，海面分成四个海域，分析了未来各区域气候变化的可能趋势。然后以１９８７年作为基准年，就未来气候变化对我国农业的可能影响作出了定量预测。预测的结果是：如果２０３０年左右全球ＣＯ＿２浓度倍增和我国平均气温上升１℃左右，全国种植业生产潜力将因气候变化而下降５％左右；畜牧业综合生产潜力可能下降７％左右；水产业生产潜力下降６％以上。有许多对抗性和适应性措施可以有助于消除全球变暖对农业的不良影响，但需要从现在起作出研究和工作的安排。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化，农业，对策 |
Possible Effects of Climate change on chinese3 Agriculture and the CountermeaSu- res |
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| Abstract: | AbstractBased on the forecast of global climate change made by IPCC,combinedwith the geography-climate distribution and climate change tendencies inDifferent regions of China over a hundred years past,nine regions in thecontinent and four districts in the ocean area were divided and the possibleclimate change tendencies in future in each regions and districts wereanalysed.And then,the influences of future climate changeon chineseagricuIture were quantitativcly calculated with regarding 1987 as the stan-dard year. The results show:ifthe concentration of globaI CO_2 is doubledand the average air temperature of China rises about 1℃ in 2030 or so,the synthctical productive potentialities of planting,livestook husbandryand fishery will be cut down respectively by 5%,7%and 6%due to theclimate change. Many countermeasures,including antagonistic and adaptiveones,may help to eliminate the negative impacts of global warming onagriculture. But researches must be arranged from now. |
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