| RCPs情景下福建省水稻生产的适应性调整模拟研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 周桐宇,江敏,孙汪亮,孙彬.RCPs情景下福建省水稻生产的适应性调整模拟研究[J].中国水稻科学,2018,32(3):265-276. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周桐宇 江敏 孙汪亮 孙彬 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.福建农林大学作物科学学院, 福州 350002;2.福建农林大学作物遗传育种与综合利用教育部重点实验室, 福州 350002 |
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| 基金项目： | 福建省自然科学基金资助项目(2014J01091); 福建农林大学校发展基金资助(CXZX2016165, CXZX2017238)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 【目的】气候变化对农业生产的影响日趋明显。分析未来气候变化所产生的影响,模拟调整作物耕作和栽培措施,为有效减轻未来气候变化带来的负效应提供参考。【方法】根据联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会第5次工作报告中未来可能的温室气体排放情况,以BCC_CSM模式模拟未来的气候变化情景,选取RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种典型浓度路径情景,与作物模型CERES-Rice耦合,筛选出了未来气候变化条件下福建省各稻区可能的最佳品种和播期,并研究分析了品种更替和播期调整后的水稻单产、稳产性以及全省水稻总产的变化。【结果】在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,闽东南双季稻区早稻的模拟产量较未作适应性调整分别增加1.6%和1.9%,晚稻的模拟产量依次增加13.5%和9.8%;闽西北双季稻区早稻的模拟产量依次提高1.4%和1.0%,晚稻的模拟产量依次提高11.5%和7.9%;闽西北山地单季稻区一季稻的模拟产量分别增加14.1%和13.7%。在综合考虑两种适应性措施后,福建省各稻区总产也较当前明显提高,在RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种情景下,分别提高9.3%和10.5%。【结论】未来气候变化对福建省水稻产量有不利影响,可采取一定的适应性措施缓解负效应。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 RCPs情景 水稻 适应性措施 作物模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017-08-30 |
| 修稿时间： | 2017-11-09 |
Simulation of Rice Adaptability Adjustment in Fujian Province Under RCPs Scenarios |
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| ZHOU Tongyu,JIANG Min,SUN Wangliang,SUN Bin.Simulation of Rice Adaptability Adjustment in Fujian Province Under RCPs Scenarios[J].Chinese Journal of Rice Science,2018,32(3):265-276. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Tongyu JIANG Min SUN Wangliang SUN Bin |
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| Institution: | 1.College of Crop Science, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou350002,China;2.Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education for Genetics, Breeding and Multiple Utilization ofCrops, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou350002,China |
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| Abstract: | 【Objective】The impact of climate change on agricultural production has become increasingly obvious, and some adaptive adjustments on crop cultivation can significantly reduce the negative effects of future climate change. 【Method】Based on the coupling of the BCC_CSM climate model and the crop model CERES-Rice, we selected the most adaptive rice varieties and the best sowing dates for each rice growing region in Fujian Province, China under the two scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5(named after a possible range of radiative forcing values in 2100 relative to pre-industrial values +4.5, and +8.5 W/m2, respectively), and then we assessed their changes in rice yield, yield stability and the overall output of rice.【Result】The simulated yields of early rice with adaptive adjustments in the double cropping rice region in southeastern Fujian under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios increase by 1.6% and 1.9%, respectively compared with those without adaptive adjustments; and for late rice, by 13.5% and 9.8%, respectively. In double cropping rice region in northwestern Fujian, the simulated yields of early rice with adaptive adjustments increased by 1.4% and 1.0% under the two climate change scenarios compared with those without adaptive adjustments; and for the late rice, by 11.5% and 7.9%. The simulated yields of single rice with adaptive adjustments increased by 14.1% and 13.7% under the two climate change scenarios compared with those without adaptive adjustments. With adaptive adjustments, the overall output of rice in Fujian under the two climate change scenarios increased by 9.3% and 10.5%. 【Conclusion】Climate change had adverse effects on rice yield in Fujian, and some adaptive adjustments could be taken to alleviate the negative impact. |
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| Keywords: | climate change RCPs scenarios rice adaptability measure crop model |
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