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| 山东省济宁市年降雨量演变与预测分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 颜恒,秦毅,李璨,时延庆.山东省济宁市年降雨量演变与预测分析[J].山东农业大学学报(自然科学版),2011,42(4):520-526. |
| 作者姓名： | 颜恒 秦毅 李璨 时延庆 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 西安理工大学西北水资源与环境生态教育部重点实验室,陕西西安,710048 2. 山东省水利勘测设计院,山东济南,250013 3. 山东省济宁水文局,山东济宁,272019 |
| 摘 要： | 济宁市人均占有水资源量不足全国平均水平的1/4,且水资源的时空分布受降水、地形地貌及人类活动影响较大,研究年降雨量的演变趋势和预测年降雨量是区域水资源规划中急需的工作。本文在对降雨序列的趋势和周期分析的基础上,通过加权马尔科夫链结合模糊集理论的方法,预测了该市的年降雨量。结果表明,尽管气温发生着变化,但降雨并无明显变化;经对2006~2009年4年的年降雨量进行预测检验,证明该预测方法有较高的准确性,预测2010年降雨量为660.39 mm,与周期分析结果一致。可以为当地水利部门的防洪抗旱工作及制定相应的政策措施提供决策支持。 |
| 关 键 词： | 年降雨量 趋势变化 周期 加权马尔科夫链 预测 |
EVOLUTION AND PREDICTION ANALYSIS OF THE ANNUAL RAINFALL IN JINING CITY,SHANDONG PROVINCE |
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| YAN Heng,QIN Yi,LI Can,SHI Yan-qing.EVOLUTION AND PREDICTION ANALYSIS OF THE ANNUAL RAINFALL IN JINING CITY,SHANDONG PROVINCE[J].Journal of Shandong Agricultural University,2011,42(4):520-526. | |
| Authors: | YAN Heng QIN Yi LI Can SHI Yan-qing |
| Institution: | YAN Heng1,QIN Yi1,LI Can2,SHI Yan-qing3(1.Key Laboratory of Northwest Water Resources and Eco-environment of the Ministry of Education,Xi'an University of Technology,Xi'an,Shaanxi 710048,China,2.Shandong Survey and Design of Water Conservancy,Jinan,Shandong 250013,3.Jining Hydrological Bureau,Jining,Shandong 272019,China) |
| Abstract: | In Jining City,the per capita amount of water is less than one quarter of average national level.Temporal-spatial distribution of water resources are affected significantly by precipitation,topography,geomorphology,human activities and etc.Annual rainfall prediction is badly in need of water resources planning.After analyzing tendency and periodic characteristics of the regional rainfall time series,a method of weighted Markov chain combined with the level characteristics value of fuzzy theory is adopted to... |
| Keywords: | Annual rainfall trend changes period weighted Markov chain prediction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |