| 小麦赤霉病发生气象条件分析与预测方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 骆丽楠,陈中赟,盛琼,梁明珠.小麦赤霉病发生气象条件分析与预测方法研究[J].安徽农学通报,2016,22(5):102-104. |
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| 作者姓名： | 骆丽楠 陈中赟 盛琼 梁明珠 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖州市气象局,浙江湖州,313000;湖州市气象局,浙江湖州,313000;湖州市气象局,浙江湖州,313000;湖州市气象局,浙江湖州,313000 |
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| 基金项目： | 浙江湖州市科技局攻关项目(2013GZ10)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对湖州2001-2012年共12a小麦赤霉病发生资料与气象资料进行对比分析,选择影响湖州小麦赤霉病发生的气象因子气温、降水、湿度、日照等,考虑前期气象条件,通过统计分析方法,建立了小麦赤霉病发生气象条件等级预报模型。用本地气象台发布的未来10d天气预报结论,结合前期天气实况,对未来10d小麦赤霉病发生气象条件等级进行预报。预报模型紧密联系预报产品特点和预报服务实际,实用性较强。
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| 关 键 词： | 小麦赤霉病 气象条件 分析 预测 |
Meteorological Condition Analysis and Forecast Method Research for Occurrence of Wheat Scab |
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| Abstract: | The paper compared the occurrence rates of wheat scab and their related meteorologic data in Huzhou dis?trict from 2001 to 2012,and identified an internal relation between wheat scab occurrence and meteorologic condi?tion,by analyzing several crucial meteorologic factors,including temperature,rainfall,humidity and sunshine. We constructed a powerful meteorologic forecast model to forecast wheat scab occurrence grades ,which is easy and pre?cise in forecasting wheat scab occurrence grades in the next 10 days by adding the parameters of weather report con?clusion,current weather condition into this model. This forecast model is powerful and practicable because it is close to characteristics of forecast products and application. |
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| Keywords: | Wheat scab Meteorological condition Analysis Forecast |
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