| 基于Copula函数的水-能源-粮食共生安全风险概率 |
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| 引用本文： | 李红芳,王会肖,赵茹欣,杨雅雪,郭嘉豪.基于Copula函数的水-能源-粮食共生安全风险概率[J].农业工程学报,2021,37(8):332-340. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李红芳 王会肖 赵茹欣 杨雅雪 郭嘉豪 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京师范大学水科学研究院，北京 100875 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划资助项目（2017YFC0404603）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（51779009） |
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| 摘 要： | 水、能源和粮食是人类赖以生存和发展的重要资源,三者之间的交互关系被称为水-能源-粮食纽带关系(Water-Energy-Food nexus,WEF nexus)。基于共生理论,以稳定性(Stability,S)、协调性(Coordination,C)和可持续性(Sustainability,E)指数评价辽宁省WEF系统协同安全水平,采用Copula函数计算其联合风险率分析不同组合的风险。结果表明:2000—2018年辽宁省WEF系统联合风险率(S≤0.4,C≤0.4,E≤0.4)为0.16,极不安全概率(S≤0.2,C≤0.2,E≤0.2)为0.06,协同安全水平指数为0.33～0.65,由不安全转向较安全状态,说明辽宁省WEF系统发生风险的概率较小、协同安全水平逐渐被改善。此外,S-C、S-E和C-E联合风险率分别为0.26、0.17、0.18,且随WEF系统稳定性和可持续性任一指数增加,协调性风险率(C≤0.4)可达60%～70%,说明辽宁省WEF系统协调性安全有待加强,尤其是农业用水效率的提高和能源消费模式的转变。
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| 关 键 词： | 系统 稳定 WEF系统 协同安全水平 联合风险率 辽宁省 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021/1/31 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021/4/11 0:00:00 |
Estimating the symbiosis risk probability of water-energy-food using Copula function |
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| Li Hongfang,Wang Huixiao,Zhao Ruxin,Yang Yaxue,Guo Jiahao.Estimating the symbiosis risk probability of water-energy-food using Copula function[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2021,37(8):332-340. |
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| Authors: | Li Hongfang Wang Huixiao Zhao Ruxin Yang Yaxue Guo Jiahao |
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| Institution: | College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China |
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| Abstract: | Abstract: Water, energy, and food are essential natural resources for human survival and development. A concept of water-energy-food nexus (WEF nexus, WEFN) can be used to describe the interaction of constraints or promotion between WEF, as well as the complex internal mechanism in the context of global resource shortage. Previously, water, energy, and food securities have been evaluated separately. Much attention has been gained on the rational use and distribution of WEF nexus, shifting from single to multiple resources in recent years. Therefore, the WEF nexus is widely expected to assess resource management and sustainable development in an integrated manner. It is necessary to simulate the integrated WEF system and accurately evaluate the WEF safety from the perspective of nexus, to ensure the stability and coordination of regional resources, as well as social and economic development. In this study, the synergistic safety of the WEF system was evaluated using the indexes of stability, coordination, and sustainability in Liaoning Province of Northeast China during 2000-2018. A Copula function was applied to calculate the joint risk probability and further analyze the risks of different combinations using symbiosis theory. The results show that there was a relatively low risk probability of the WEF system, while the synergistic safety was gradually improved. Specifically, the joint risk probability of the WEF system was 0.16, and the extremely unsafe probability was 0.06, while the synergistic safety indexes ranged between 0.33 and 0.65 shifting from an unsafe to a safer state. The weightings of stability, coordination, and sustainability indexes of the WEF systems were 0.32, 0.36, and 0.32, respectively, indicating that equal attention needed to be paid to improving the comprehensive security of WEF relationships. A strong correlation was found in the relationship of stability index between the utilization rate of groundwater resources, food production per capita, the rates of development and utilization of water resources, the utilization rate of surface water resources, the rates of renewable energy, as well as the rate of utilization of cultivated land and water consumption per 10,000 RMB of GDP. A strong correlation was also found in the relationship of coordinated changes between the proportion of energy consumption in the primary industry, the proportion of irrigation water consumption of farmland, and the amount of water use per unit food production. The great correlation to sustainable change was included with the Engel coefficient of urban residents, the Engel coefficient of rural residents, and GDP per capita. In addition, the joint risk probability of S-C, S-E, and C-E were 0.26, 0.17, and 0.18, respectively. The risk of coordination index in the WEF system reached 60%-70%, indicating that the coordination needed to be strengthened. Especially, the implementation was required to make on the agricultural water use efficiency and the transformation of energy consumption patterns, as the stability or sustainability index increased in the WEF system. In future work, a hierarchical early warning can be established to cover the WEF nexus and mutual feeding paths under the ever-evolving environment. Comprehensive response plans can be developed for various types of risks, particularly, the positive impact and reverse feedback of external environmental changes on the synergistic security of WEF nexus, such as climate change and economic situation. |
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| Keywords: | system stability water-energy-food system synergistic safety joint risk probability Liaoning Province |
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