| 天山北坡呼图壁河流域积雪水文过程对气候变化的响应 |
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| 引用本文： | 秦艳,赵求东,刘永强,丁建丽.天山北坡呼图壁河流域积雪水文过程对气候变化的响应[J].水土保持学报,2021,35(3):190-199. |
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| 作者姓名： | 秦艳 赵求东 刘永强 丁建丽 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 新疆大学资源与环境科学学院智慧城市与环境建模普通高校重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐 830046;2. 新疆大学绿洲生态教育部重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐 830046;3. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院, 兰州 730000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目（2019YFC1510505）；国家自然科学基金项目（41771470，41871059）；新疆大学博士启动基金项目；冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室开放基金项目（SKLCS-OP-2020-7） |
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| 摘 要： | 积雪是干旱区水资源的重要组成部分,气候变暖引起的降水形态和积雪消融的改变势必会对流域径流过程及其组分变化产生重要的影响。选取天山北坡呼图壁河流域作为干旱区积雪补给典型流域,利用站点气象数据及IPCC CMIP5气候情景数据,驱动改进雨雪划分方案、融雪径流计算模块的VIC模型,以观测径流和MODIS积雪面积数据进行模型多目标参数优化,定量解析呼图壁河流域径流组成、变化特征及对气候变化的响应机理。结果表明:(1)呼图壁河径流呈暖季集中的单峰型分布,融雪径流、降雨径流和冰川径流分别占径流总量的27.7%,66.1%,6.2%。1978—2010年呼图壁流域在气温、降水量显著增加,降雪量变化不大,降雪占降水比例显著下降的背景下,总径流和降雨径流显著增加,融雪径流微弱增加。(2) RCP4.5情景下,预估未来呼图壁河流域气温将显著升高,降水缓慢增加,而降雪明显减少;流域总径流将缓慢增加,其中降雨径流显著增加,而融雪径流将显著减少;径流年内分配亦将改变,将表现为春季径流和峰值流量的下降,枯水期流量增加,融雪径流峰值前移。(3)春季融雪径流的占比最高,其变化直接决定着总径流的丰枯变化;预估未来融雪径流显著减少将导致3—6月灌溉期总径流减少,在现有农业生产模式下将进一步加剧灌溉用水矛盾。
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| 关 键 词： | 呼图壁河流域 水文过程 气候变化 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020/12/23 0:00:00 |
Response of Snow Hydrological Processes to Climate Change in the Hutubi River Basin on the North Slope of Tianshan Mountains |
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| QIN Yan,ZHAO Qiudong,LIU Yongqiang,DING Jianli.Response of Snow Hydrological Processes to Climate Change in the Hutubi River Basin on the North Slope of Tianshan Mountains[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,35(3):190-199. |
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| Authors: | QIN Yan ZHAO Qiudong LIU Yongqiang DING Jianli |
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| Institution: | 1. Xinjiang Common University Key Lab of Smart City and Environmental Stimulation, College of Resources and Environment Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046;2. Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Ministry of Education, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046;3. Northwest China Ecological Environment and Resource Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000 |
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| Abstract: | Snow is an important part of water resources in arid regions. Change of precipitation pattern and snow melting caused by climate warming are bound to have an important impact on the runoff process and its components. In this study, Hutubi river basin on the north slope of Tianshan mountains was selected as a typical watershed for snow replenishment in arid region. We used site meteorological observation data and IPCC CMIP5 climate scenario data to drive the improved VIC model of rain and snow partition scheme and snowmelt runoff calculation module, and used observed runoff and MODIS snow cover area data to optimize the model''s multi-objective parameters. Then the runoff components, runoff variation characteristics and response mechanism of streamflow to climate change were quantitatively analyzed in Hutubi river basin. The results showed that:(1) The runoff process of the Hutubi river showed a concentrated unimodal distribution in the warm season. Snowmelt runoff, rainfall runoff and glacier runoff accounted for 27.7%, 66.1% and 6.2% of the total runoff, respectively. From 1978 to 2010, under the background of significant increase in temperature and precipitation, little change in snowfall amount, and significant decrease in snowfall proportion, the total runoff and rainfall runoff increased significantly, while snowmelt runoff increased slightly. (2) Under the RCP4.5 climate scenario, it predicts that the temperature in the Hutubi River Basin will increase significantly in the future, precipitation will increase slowly, and snowfall will decrease significantly. Affected by climate change, the total runoff of the basin will increase slowly, in which rainfall runoff will increase significantly, and snowmelt runoff will decrease significantly. The annual distribution of runoff will also change in the future, which will show the decrease of spring runoff amount and peak value, the increase of runoff in dry season and the advance of snowmelt runoff peak. (3) In spring, the proportion of snowmelt runoff is the highest, and its change directly determines the change of total runoff. It estimates that a significant reduction in snowmelt runoff in the future will result in a decrease in total runoff during the irrigation period from March to June, which will further aggravate the contradiction of agricultural irrigation water under the existing agricultural mode. |
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| Keywords: | Hutubi river basin hydrological processes climate change |
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