| 气候变化对冀西北青贮玉米种植布局影响的预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 许瀚林,刘瑶,袁晓峰,潘婕,瓮巧云,吕爱枝,刘颖慧.气候变化对冀西北青贮玉米种植布局影响的预测[J].作物杂志,2020,36(1):124-6. |
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| 作者姓名： | 许瀚林 刘瑶 袁晓峰 潘婕 瓮巧云 吕爱枝 刘颖慧 |
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| 作者单位： | 1河北北方学院农林科技学院,075000,河北张家口2中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,100081,北京 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发项目,粮食丰产增效科技创新项目(2017YFD0300305) |
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| 摘 要： | 针对气候变化背景下冀西北地区青贮玉米生产布局及应对未来气候变化政策调整的需要,利用ArcGIS 9.3技术最大熵模型研究青贮玉米种植区分布的气候适宜性。结果表明:目前冀西北地区青贮玉米种植区从北到东南总体呈现“最适宜区-适宜区-次适宜区-不适宜区”的分布格局。其中最适宜区面积占28.16%,建议种植中早熟品种;适宜区面积占57.72%,适宜种植中晚熟品种;次适宜区面积占9.65%,不适宜区占4.46%,建议对次适宜区和不适宜区的种植模式进行调整并减少种植面积。2030s、2050s气候情景数据预测表明:1986-2050年≥10℃积温与年平均温度持续上升,降水量呈现先上升（2030s）后下降（2050s）的趋势,2030s、2050s气候影响冀西北地区青贮玉米潜在种植区域明显,表现为青贮玉米适宜区随着未来气候变化逐渐减小,不适宜区呈现从南向北扩展的趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 青贮玉米 气候变化 气候适宜性 种植区域分布 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-07-05 |
Projection of Climate Change on the Planting Distribution of Silage Maize in Northwest Hebei Province |
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| Xu Hanlin,Liu Yao,Yuan Xiaofeng,Pan Jie,Weng Qiaoyun,Lü Aizhi,Liu Yinghui.Projection of Climate Change on the Planting Distribution of Silage Maize in Northwest Hebei Province[J].Crops,2020,36(1):124-6. |
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| Authors: | Xu Hanlin Liu Yao Yuan Xiaofeng Pan Jie Weng Qiaoyun Lü Aizhi Liu Yinghui |
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| Institution: | 1College of Agriculture and Forestry Science and Technology, Hebei North University, Zhangjiakou 075000,Hebei, China2Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the potential climate factors affecting the distribution of silage maize planting areas and combined with the geographical distribution of silage maize planting areas in Northwest Hebei Province, climate suitability was studied by using ArcGIS 9.3 technology maximum entropy model. The results showed that the distribution pattern of silage maize planting area in Zhangjiakou area from North to Southeast was "Optimum area—suitable area—less suitable area—unsuitable area". The results showed that optimum suitable area is 28.16%. Early-maturing varieties are recommended to be planted; suitable area is 57.72%. Late-maturing varieties are suitable for middle-late-maturing varieties; less suitable area is 9.65%. It is suggested that medium-maturing varieties should be planted; unsuitable area is 4.46%. It is suggested that silage maize should be reduced and grapes be replaced. With the continuous increase of accumulated temperature and annual average temperature above 10℃ in 1986-2050, precipitation showed a trend of rising first (2030s) and then decreasing (2050s). Combining with the climate scenario data of 2030s and 2050s, the future climate scenarios of 2030s and 2050s will affect the potential planting area layout of silage maize in Northwest Hebei, which is the suitable area for silage maize. The planting area tends to decrease gradually with the future climate change, while the unsuitable area tends to expand from South to North. |
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| Keywords: | Silage maize Climate change Climate suitability Planting area distribution |
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