| 基于logistic回归模型的矿区土地利用演变驱动力分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐嘉兴,李 钢,陈国良.基于logistic回归模型的矿区土地利用演变驱动力分析[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(20):247-255. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐嘉兴 李 钢 陈国良 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国矿业大学国土环境与灾害监测国家测绘地理信息局重点实验室,徐州 221116
2. 中国矿业大学环境与测绘学院,徐州 221008 |
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| 基金项目： | 国土资源部公益专项基金资助项目（201115106311,2012110011）;江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划资助项目（CXZZ11_0301） |
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| 摘 要： | 为探究矿区土地利用演变规律和驱动机制,该文基于1990年、2000年和2008年的遥感影像,借助遥感、GIS技术及数理统计软件,分析了徐州贾汪矿区近18a的土地利用变化特征,在此基础上,选取了多个经济社会及空间距离因子,运用多元logistic回归模型,探讨了该区土地利用变化的驱动因素。结果表明:1990-2008年间,研究区内土地利用变化的主要特征是耕地、林地持续减少,而建设用地和水域迅速增加,草地缓慢增加,整体处于不平衡的状态;通过对耕地和林地变化的logistic回归模型分析,耕地变化在第1阶段(1990-2000年)的主要驱动因素是最近采矿点的距离和到农村居民点的距离,第2阶段(2000-2008年)较为重要的变量有到农村居民点的距离、农业人口密度和到公路的距离;2000-2008年间林地变化较为重要的驱动因素有高程、到最近采矿点的距离和到公路的距离。研究结果对矿区生态环境保护、土地资源优化配置及可持续利用具有重要的指导作用。
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| 关 键 词： | 土地利用 地理信息系统 煤矿 驱动力 logistic回归模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 3/9/2012 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2012/9/12 0:00:00 |
Driving force analysis of land use change based on Logistic regression model in mining area |
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| Xu Jiaxing,Li Gang and Chen Guoliang.Driving force analysis of land use change based on Logistic regression model in mining area[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2012,28(20):247-255. |
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| Authors: | Xu Jiaxing Li Gang and Chen Guoliang |
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| Institution: | 1,2 (1. Key Laboratory for Land Environment and Disaster Monitoring of National Administration of Surveying Mapping and Geoinformation, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China; 2. School of Environment Science and Spatial Informatics, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221008, China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to investigate the evolution and driving mechanism of land use in mining area, land use change of Jiawang mining area in Xuzhou was analyzed based on the TM/ETM images in 1990, 2000 and 2008, using remote sensing, GIS and software SPSS. With the Logistic regression model, the driving factors of land use change were analyzed from economic, social and spatial distance factors. The results showed that the characteristics of land use change in the study area were that the cultivated land and forest land continuously decreased, constructive land and water body rapidly increased, and grassland slightly increased, which were in an unbalanced state overall. The analysis results of logistic regression model for cultivated land and forest land change indicated that the change of cultivated land in first period (1990-2000) was dominated by the factors of "distance to the nearest mining area" and "distance to the nearest rural settlement", and priority factors in the second period (2000-2008) were "distance to the nearest rural settlement", "farmer's population density", and "distance to the nearest road". Decrease of forest land was affected by "elevation" and "distance to the nearest mining area" from 2000 to 2008. These results provide an important guide for ecological and environmental conservation, optimal allocation and sustainable utilization of land resources in mining areas. |
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| Keywords: | land use geographic information system coal mines driving force logistic regression model |
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