| 小麦条锈病动态预测的初步研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨之为,裴宏洲.小麦条锈病动态预测的初步研究[J].中国农业科学,1991,24(6):45-50. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨之为 裴宏洲 |
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| 作者单位： | 西北农业大学植保系，陕西杨陵 712100 甘肃省天水北道区病虫测报站 |
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| 摘 要： | 笔者利用5种不同增长模型，对1987-1989年间人工接种区病害系统观察的72组数据和1979-1989年田间发病区定点系统观察的26组数据进行拟合检验，认为以Logistic模型模拟小麦条锈病的田间增长过程效果较好。并对三种计算病害增长速率的办法进行了比较，得出以回归法求出的r值对实测病情的拟合误差较小。与此同时，还运用逐步回归法求得了病害增长速率的预测式，最后通过田间病害调查的实例将病害的动态预测方法进行说明。
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| 关 键 词： | 小麦条锈病 侵染速率 动态预测 |
DINAMIC FORECASTING OF STRIPE RUST OF WINTER WHEAT |
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| Yang Zhiwei Shang Hongsheng.DINAMIC FORECASTING OF STRIPE RUST OF WINTER WHEAT[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,1991,24(6):45-50. |
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| Authors: | Yang Zhiwei Shang Hongsheng |
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| Abstract: | The author employed five types of growing model, to simulate systematic data of 98 groups that came from artificial inoculum plots and natural disease fields from 1979 to 1989. It was demonstrated that the logistic model is best for simulating the development of stripe rust of winter wheat in the fields. Three methods of calculating infection rate have been checked and the result shows that regression method with less statistical discrepancy is better than others. A forecasting equation is also made by using stepwise regression, it is r=0.0215-0.0082x_1~2 +0.0299x_2~2+0.0339x_5 +0.0007x_7~2+0.0166x_8-0.0057x_s.x_8.R~2=0.9998, s=0.0032. At the end of this paper some examples are provided to illustrate how to make dynamic forecast of stripe rust and how to choose the date for EDT. |
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| Keywords: | Stripe rust Infection rate Dynamic forecast |
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