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| 柑橘黄龙病入侵与疫情扩散模型研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 余继华,汪恩国.柑橘黄龙病入侵与疫情扩散模型研究[J].中国农学通报,2008,24(8):387-391. |
| 作者姓名： | 余继华 汪恩国 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 浙江省台州市黄岩区植物检疫站,浙江黄岩,318020 2. 浙江省临海市植物保护站,浙江临海,317000 |
| 基金项目： | 浙江省重点农业科技项目"柑橘黄龙病监测与防控对策研究" |
| 摘 要： | 为了提示柑橘黄龙病入侵发病扩散规律，评估防控成效，有效控制疫情，2002—2007年在柑橘黄龙病初发生区采用设立自然条件、治虫防病和综合防控三处理类型，监测柑橘黄龙病发生扩散动态，结合面上疫情普查资料，创建柑橘黄龙病自然条件下、治虫防病条件下以及综合防控条件下的疫情扩散模型，分别为：P1=12.9690N1-18.10（n=6，r=0.9945**）或P1=0.2293N12+11.135N1-14.89（n=6，r=0.9948**），P2=7.8857N2-10.2667（n=6，r=0.9675**）或P2=1.4107N22-1.9893N2+2.90（n=7，r=0.9996**）和P3=-0.1398x N32+1.1248N3-1.141(n=6，r=0.8396*)，结果表明柑橘黄龙病在自然条件下从发病到毁园需要9a时间，单一治虫防病措施难以达到持续控制效果，只有采取综合防控措施，才能达到可持续控制，保障柑橘优势产业持续健康发展。 |
| 关 键 词： | 柑橘 柑橘黄龙病 发生流行 扩散模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008-05-25 |
| 修稿时间： | 2008-06-05 |
Research on Epidemic Diffusion Model of Citrus Huanglongbing in Citrus Orchard |
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| Yu Jihu,Wang Enguo.Research on Epidemic Diffusion Model of Citrus Huanglongbing in Citrus Orchard[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2008,24(8):387-391. | |
| Authors: | Yu Jihu Wang Enguo |
| Institution: | Plant Quarantine Stations of Huangyan District, Taizhou Zhejiang 318020, Plant Protection Stations of Linhai City, Linhai Zhejiang, 317000 |
| Abstract: | The occurrence of Citrus Huanglongbing were investigated to reveal the epidemic diffusion in citrus orchards. Based on the three types of treatment: natural conditions without artificial control, simple pest control and disease prevention and the integrated control methods, we established the epidemic diffusion model of Citrus Huanglongbing by the dynamic inspection of onset and dispersion in Huangyan District from2002 to 2007, with the help of the epidemic census data: P1=12.9690N1-18.10（n=6，r=0.9945**）or P1=0.2293N12+11.135N1-14.89（n=6，r=0.9948**），P2=7.8857N2-10.2667（n=6，r=0.9675**） or P2=1.4107N22-1.9893N2+2.90（n=7，r=0.9996**） and P3=-0.1398xN32+1.1248N3-1.141(n=6,r=0.8396*). The results show that it takes nine years from the onset to complete destruction in natural conditions without artificial control by the models. Simple pest control and disease prevention measures also were difficult to achieve the sustainable control effect. The integrated control methods’s an effective approach to control Citrus Huanglongbing sustainably and safeguard the smooth development of dominant citrus industry. |
| Keywords: | citruszz Citrus Huanglongbingzz occurs popularlyzz diffusion modelzz |
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