| 武汉极端事件重现期计算及变化特征分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 白永清,祁海霞,何明琼.武汉极端事件重现期计算及变化特征分析[J].安徽农业科学,2014(7):2074-2076,2108. |
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| 作者姓名： | 白永清 祁海霞 何明琼 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉430074 [2]湖北省气象服务中心,湖北武汉430074 [3]武汉中心气象台,湖北武汉430074 |
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| 基金项目： | 湖北省气象局科技发展基金项目（2013Q07）. |
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| 摘 要： | 利用武汉站1951~2011年常规气象观测资料,采用GPD方法分别计算了武汉汛期降水、盛夏高低温、冬季低温各重现期下极端事件的重现值,并利用M-K突变检验分析了武汉一年当中关键时期的极端事件变化特征。结果表明,武汉汛期1年一遇指标达92mm,30年一遇指标超过了250 mm特大暴雨量级;汛期极端降水频数从20世纪80年代前期开始出现增长趋势,特别是2005~2008年,增长趋势明显,突变发生在1978年前后。盛夏极端高温1年一遇指标达37.9℃,最低温度1年一遇指标达30.1℃;近10年是极端高温的一个频发时期,平均强度呈线性增长趋势,上升趋势为0.058℃/10a;从80年代末开始,夏季极端低温频数迅速增涨,平均强度也呈线性增长趋势,上升趋势为0.086℃/10a,频数突变发生在1991年,强度突变发生在1993年。冬季极端低温1年一遇指标为-7.5℃,50年一遇指标达-18.3℃;寒冬极端低温集中发生在50~70年代,80年代开始温度逐渐回暖,极端低温强度升高趋势为0.323℃/10a;强度突变发生在1984年,频数突变发生在1987年。
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| 关 键 词： | 极端事件 重现期 GPD M-K检验 变化特征 武汉 |
Calculation of Return Period of Extreme Events in Wuhan and Its Changing Characteristics Analysis |
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| Institution: | BAI Yong-qing et al (Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research, WHIHR, Wuhan, Hubei 430074) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the conventional meteorological data in Wuhan station from 1951 to 2011, the return values of extreme precipitation in flood season and maximum/minimum temperature in midsummer and minimum temperature in winter of return period were calculated by GPD method, and its changing characteristics were analyzed by Mann-Kendall significance test method. The results showed that, 1 year return value of extreme precipitation in flood season was 92 mm, and 30 years return index of extreme torrential rain was over 250 mm. The frequency of extreme precipitation in flood season began to appear increased trend from the early 1980s ; especially in 2005 -2008 growth was significant, and abrupt change occurred in 1978. 1 year return value of extreme maximum/minimum temperature in midsummer was 37.9 ℃/30.1℃. It was a frequent extreme maximum temperature period in midsummer nearly 10 years, the mean intensity index increased linearly trend, it was increased by 0. 058℃ every 10 years. The frequency of extreme maximum temperature at night in midsummer rapid rose from the late 1980s, the mean intensity index increased linearly trend, it was increased by 0. 086℃ every 10 years. The frequency abrupt change occurred in 1991, and the intensity abrupt change occurred in 1993. 1 year return value of extreme minimum temperature in winter was - 7.5℃, and 50 years return value got - 18.3℃. The frequency of extreme minimum temperature in winter concentrated in 1950s - 1970s, it began to appear decreased trend from the early 1980s. The mean intensity index appeared linearly trend, and it was rose by 0. 086℃ every 10 years. The intensity abrupt change occurred in 1984, and the frequency abrupt change occurred in 1987. |
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| Keywords: | Extreme events Return values GPD Mann-Kendall Variation characteristics Wuhan |
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