| 未来10年中国棉花发展趋势分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 翟雪玲,张雯丽,李冉.未来10年中国棉花发展趋势分析[J].农业展望,2014,10(8):8-11. |
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| 作者姓名： | 翟雪玲 张雯丽 李冉 |
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| 作者单位： | 农业部农村经济研究中心 北京100810 |
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| 摘 要： | 在对影响棉花市场发展各种因素分析的基础上,对未来10年中国棉花市场发展趋势进行了展望。未来10年,受比较效益下降、生产成本提高、国家粮食优先战略等因素影响,中国棉花面积和产量呈下降趋势。在人口增长、人均收入增加、城镇化继续推进等影响下,未来中国棉花消费量仍将增长,尤其是国内消费量增长较为明显。由于中国取消棉花临时收储政策,国内外棉花价格将趋于一致,国内棉花价格下降趋势明显,企业进口棉花动力减弱,未来棉花进口量持续下降。
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| 关 键 词： | 棉花 种植面积 进口 消费 成本 目标价格 发展趋势 |
China's Cotton Development Trend in the Next Decade |
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| Zhai Xueling,Zhang Wenli,Li Ran.China's Cotton Development Trend in the Next Decade[J].Agricultural Outlook,2014,10(8):8-11. |
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| Authors: | Zhai Xueling Zhang Wenli Li Ran |
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| Institution: | (Research Center for Rural Economy, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100810) |
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| Abstract: | We forecasted the development trend of China＇s cotton market in the next decade based on the analysis of various influencing factors of cotton market. China＇s cotton area and production will decline, influenced by decreased comparative effectiveness, increased production costs, national food strategic priorities and other factors. Affected by population growth, rising per capita income, advancing urbanization, in the future China＇s cotton consumption will continue to grow, especially domestic consumption. Since China＇s goverment canceled the temporary storage policy of cotton, price gap at home and abroad is narrowing with domestic cotton price declining significantly, and cotton imports will decrease in the future with less import activity of cotton industries. |
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| Keywords: | cotton sown acreage import consumption cost target price development trend |
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