| 碳中和目标下河北省土地利用碳排放格局演变与多情景模拟 |
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| 引用本文： | 武爱彬,赵艳霞,郭小平,陈辅国.碳中和目标下河北省土地利用碳排放格局演变与多情景模拟[J].农业工程学报,2023,39(14):261-270. |
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| 作者姓名： | 武爱彬 赵艳霞 郭小平 陈辅国 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京林业大学 水土保持学院，北京 100083;河北省科学院地理科学研究所/河北省地理信息开发应用工程技术研究中心，石家庄 050011;河北地质大学 土地科学与空间规划学院，石家庄 050031 |
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| 基金项目： | 河北省科学院基本科研业务费试点项目（2023PF04） |
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| 摘 要： | 分析和优化土地利用碳排放的格局演变可以为构建低碳排放的国土空间格局、助力碳中和战略目标实现提供参考和借鉴。该研究利用土地利用类型、能源消耗和农业活动碳排放系数法，基于GIS软件和PLUS模型核算了河北省2000—2020年土地利用直接碳排放、间接碳排放和净碳排放量及空间格局演变，模拟了自然发展、碳增汇优先发展和碳减排优先发展3种情景下河北省2030和2060年土地利用格局，并核算了生态系统增汇管理下不同情景土地利用碳排放量，结果表明：1）研究期间河北省土地利用直接碳排放量基本保持稳定，表现为碳吸收；土地利用间接碳排放量和土地利用净碳排放量呈现持续增加趋势，但增加速度明显下降。2）研究期间碳吸收区域和中净碳排放栅格单元空间上呈现收缩趋势，低净碳排放、中高净碳排放和高净碳排放栅格单元空间上呈现扩张趋势。碳吸收区域和低净碳排放栅格单元占比最大，但净碳排放主要产生在中高净碳排放区域和高净碳排放栅格单元。3）碳增汇优先发展情景下，林草地分布范围更广，在环渤海区域水域数量明显增加，土地利用直接碳排放绝对值最大。碳减排优先情景下石家庄、唐山、保定等大城市中心城区向外扩张的范围略有收缩，建设用地集约效果有一定体现，土地利用净碳排放值最小。碳减排是未来实现碳中和战略的根本。
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| 关 键 词： | 土地利用 碳排放 模型 模拟 格局演变 |
| 收稿时间： | 2023/4/21 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2023/7/19 0:00:00 |
Evolution and multi scenario simulation of land use carbon emission pattern in Hebei Province under carbon neutral target |
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| WU Aibin,ZHAO Yanxi,GUO Xiaoping,CHEN Fuguo.Evolution and multi scenario simulation of land use carbon emission pattern in Hebei Province under carbon neutral target[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2023,39(14):261-270. |
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| Authors: | WU Aibin ZHAO Yanxi GUO Xiaoping CHEN Fuguo |
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| Institution: | School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China;Institute of Geographical Sciences Hebei Academy of Sciences/Hebei Engineering Research Center for Geographic Information Application, Shijiazhuang 050011, China; School of Land Science and Space Planning, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang 050031, China |
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| Abstract: | Carbon emission has been posed a great challenge on the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Low-carbon spatial pattern can be optimized to construct the national evolution of carbon emission from land use. In this study, the direct-, indirect-, and net carbon emissions were calculated for the land use in Hebei Province of China from 2000 to 2020, according to the carbon emission coefficients of land use types, energy consumption, and agricultural activities. The spatial pattern evolution was also achieved using GIS software and the PLUS model. Three development scenarios of land use patterns were simulated in the study area in 2030 and 2060. The carbon emissions were then calculated under different scenarios of ecosystem carbon sequestration management. The results were as follows: The direct carbon emissions from land use were remained basically stable at −2.43 million −2.5 million t/a in the study period, indicating the carbon absorption. Indirect- and net Carbon emissions from land use showed a continuous increasing trend ranging from 86.198 million t in 2000 to 267.142 million t in 2020. But the increasing speed decreased outstandingly, whereas, the net carbon emissions from land use depended mainly on the carbon emissions from energy consumption. There was the basically stable spatial distribution of grid units at the various levels of carbon emission. Specifically, the grid units of carbon absorption were concentrated in the Taihang Mountain area of Yanshan Mountain, while the grid units of low net carbon emission were distributed mainly in the southeast plain, the medium net carbon emission was found in the rural residential areas and the Bohai Rim region, and the high net carbon emission was in the surrounding cities of Shijiazhuang, Langfang, Baoding and some county central cities. There was a shrinking trend of space in the carbon absorption area and medium net carbon emission grid units. By contrast, an expanding trend in space was found in the low, medium high, and high net carbon emission grid units. The largest proportion was accounted in the carbon absorption areas and low net carbon emission grid units in the study area. But the net carbon emission often occurred in the middle and high net carbon emission areas and high net carbon emission grid units. The number of forest land, grassland, and unused land were remained basically stable under the natural development scenario. The number of cultivated land types was continued to decrease, whereas, there was an increase in the number of construction land and water areas. A wider distribution of forest and grassland was found to significant promote the number of waters around Bohai Sea under the priority development scenario of carbon sequestration, compared with the natural one. Furthermore, the scope of outward expansion shared the central cities of Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Baoding City, whereas, the other big cities were shrunk slightly in space, indicating the intensive effect of construction land. The net carbon emissions of land use in 2030 and 2060 were 67.42% and 38.16% of those in 2020, respectively, under the natural development scenario. The direct carbon emissions from land use in 2030 and 2060 increased by 1.13% and 2.99%, respectively, under the priority development scenario of carbon increase. Alternatively, the indirect carbon emissions from land use in 2030 and 2060 decreased by 4.55% and 10.40%, respectively, under the priority development scenario of carbon emission reduction. The priority net carbon emissions of carbon emission reduction decreased by 4.64% and 11.20%, respectively, compared with the natural development scenario. Among the three scenarios, the priority scenario of carbon reduction presented the least net carbon emission from land use. The finding can also provide a strong reference to analyze evolution patterns of carbon emission for the carbon neutral target. |
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| Keywords: | land use carbon emissions model simulation pattern evolution |
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