| 黄河三角洲东亚飞蝗夏蝗发生的气象预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 信志红,张西健.黄河三角洲东亚飞蝗夏蝗发生的气象预测模型[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(1):155-159. |
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| 作者姓名： | 信志红 张西健 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 山东省东营市气象局,东营,257091
2. 东营市农业局,东营,257091 |
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| 基金项目： | 山东省气象局重点攻关课题基金项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用黄河三角洲地区5个重点沿海蝗区1983-2008年东亚飞蝗夏蝗的调查资料和相应的气象资料,分别对飞蝗发生期、发生量与主要气象因子进行相关分析并组建回归预测模型。结果表明,夏蝗出土始期和出土盛期均与上年9月和当年2月的降水量呈显著的负相关关系,但方程系数不同;在发生量预测中,夏蝗发生密度与4月平均气温和2月降水量呈显著负相关,发生面积与3月和上年8月的平均气温呈显著正相关、与上年9月降水量呈显著负相关。利用历史资料对预测模型进行回代检验,模拟值的平均相对准确率达90.2%,可以满足实际需求。
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| 关 键 词： | 东亚飞蝗 夏蝗 出土始期 出土盛期 发生密度 发生面积 预测模型 |
Meteorological Prediction Model for Occurrence of Summer Oriental Migratory Locust in Yellow River Delta Region |
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| XIN Zhi-hong,ZHANG Xi-jian.Meteorological Prediction Model for Occurrence of Summer Oriental Migratory Locust in Yellow River Delta Region[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2010,31(1):155-159. |
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| Authors: | XIN Zhi-hong ZHANG Xi-jian |
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| Institution: | XIN Zhi-hong1,ZHANG Xi-jian2(1.Meteorological Bureau of Dongying City,Dongying 257091,China,2.Agricultural Bureau of Dongying City,Dongying 257091) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the survey data of summer oriental migratory locust and meteorological data between 1983 to 2008 in the five key coastal regions of the Yellow River Delta,the statistical correlation between the occurrence period,quantity of the summer oriental migratory locust and the main meteorological factors were analyzed.The regressive prediction model was built.The result showed that the obvious negative correlations between the beginning,the peak unearthed period of summer oriental migratory locust and rain... |
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| Keywords: | Oriental migratory locust Summer locust Beginning of unearthed period Peak of unearthed period Occurrence density Occurrence area Prediction model |
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