| 陕西省苹果产量预报模型初探 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘璐,张勇.陕西省苹果产量预报模型初探[J].安徽农业科学,2012(6):3474-3475,3479. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘璐 张勇 |
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| 作者单位： | 陕西省经济作物气象服务台,陕西西安,710014 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局2010年新技术推广项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据陕西省苹果产业气象服务业务需求,利用气象条件、生态监测和种植面积3个指标,共13个子指标建立陕西省苹果产量预报概念模型,通过对各指标与去年及历年情况的对比,了解当年这些因素相较去年及历年的优劣程度,并以前1年情况为基准,定性判断当年苹果产量变化趋势及幅度,进而判断当年苹果产量。该模型目前已满足陕西苹果气象服务业务需求,并可为今后进一步完善苹果产量预报方法、指导其他省市开展各类特色经济林果产量定性预报提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 苹果 产量预报 概念模型 |
Research on Apple Production Forecast Model of Shaanxi Province |
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| Institution: | LIU Lu et al(Shaanxi Province Meteorological Serving Authority of Economical Crops,Xi’an,Shaanxi 710014) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the business requirements of apple industry weather service in Shaanxi Province,and using three indexes of meteorological conditions,ecological monitoring and cultivated area,which contain 13 sub-indicators,Shaanxi apple production forecast model was established,it’s a concept forecast model,which got the predictive value by contrasting the three main elements with there be at the last year and the calendar year,and based on the condition of last year,the variation trend and range of apple production current year were judged qualitatively,thereby,the apple production of current year were estimated.The model has met the needs of weather service business,and will give reference to improve the apple production forecast model,and the research of qualitative forecasting method for other economic fruits. |
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| Keywords: | Apple Production forecast Concept model |
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